El Niño Grows Stronger: Five Ways It Is Already Reshaping Weather Around the World

El Niño, which has been strengthening for several months, is already having a significant impact on global weather patterns. Countries including Indonesia, India and the United States have been experiencing droughts, floods and heatwaves in line with projections about how the phenomenon will supercharge extreme weather events.

The World Meteorological Agency says the record-breaking El Niño will strengthen further and persist until at least 2027. Its effects, in other words, will continue to be felt across regions of the world in the months ahead.

The first impact is clearest in Indonesia. The country typically trends drier and hotter in El Niño years, and it is now battling its worst wildfire season since 2015.

This year, since January, at least 895,657 hectares of land — nearly six times the size of Greater London — have been burned. That is more than twice the area burned last year without the influence of El Niño.

The wildfires have led to school closures and an increase in hospital admissions across Indonesia. Millions of people in Sumatra and Kalimantan have been exposed to toxic haze from the fires, and around 175,000 people have suffered respiratory illness. More than 40,000 of those cases involve toddlers, ranging from coughs to bronchitis and more serious conditions like pneumonia.

The second impact is in the eastern Pacific, where El Niño tends to strengthen hurricane activity. It has been a very active season so far, with 22 named storms and 12 hurricanes, including 10 major hurricanes. With two months still left until the season ends, that is already above the number that would typically develop in a whole average season.

Here, El Niño provides the ingredients of higher ocean temperatures and weaker winds high in the atmosphere, making it easier for storms to gain strength. One hurricane underwent rapid intensification, producing wind gusts of 180 mph (285 kmh) fuelled by the very warm waters produced by El Niño. Polo was also one of three hurricanes churning in the same basin at the same time, along with Odalys and Nolo.

Three simultaneous hurricanes have now happened twice in the space of a month. Earlier in September, the energy produced by exceptional ocean heat resulted in three simultaneous hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific: Lowell, Karina and Marie. Until this year, the last time there had been three Pacific hurricanes at the same time was 2015.

In contrast, the Atlantic Ocean has remained eerily quiet — the third impact. El Niño tends to increase wind shear in the north Atlantic, a factor which tears apart storms and limits formation. There has been only one hurricane, Isaias, which made landfall in the Florida Panhandle and Alabama.

Isaias was the latest-forming hurricane on record in the satellite era (from the 1960s onward). The previous record was 11 September, set in 2002 and 2013. In an average season there would have been 10 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes by this point; this year there have been only eight tropical storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo and Hanna.

The fourth impact is in India, where the drier and warmer theme has taken hold in the essential monsoon rainfall, which has been 13% below average. While the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) would consider this still within the 'normal' range, the overall average does not reflect the variation across India.

While central India had around its normal expected rainfall, the east and north-east were around 26% drier than average and put into 'exceptional' drought, and southern states were 24% drier than average. Even where rainfall was nearer to average, it did not fall continuously as is typical during the monsoon, instead flipping between long dry spells and extreme rainfall, adding stress and vulnerability to agriculture yields. India is influenced by a number of different weather patterns that can affect the monsoon, so scientists suggest El Niño may not have been the only factor.

The fifth impact is in the western Pacific, where it has also been an active season in eastern China and Japan as storms including Maysak and Dujuan have brought widespread floods and landslides. According to the Japanese Meteorological Agency, 10 tropical cyclones have formed in the western Pacific Ocean — the highest number in a season since 1966. During El Niño the warmer Pacific changes wind patterns, meaning cyclones tend to form further east, away from Japan and east China; however, that also gives them a bigger distance and more time to feed off the warmer waters, gaining energy to become more intense typhoons before they hit land. Scientists believe additional typhoons are likely to develop this year, with the potential for further impacts to Japan or east China.