Why the November 3 US Midterms Matter: Control of Congress Will Shape Trump's Final Two Years

The United States midterm elections on November 3 are dominating national and international headlines.

The stakes of the election are high. The midterm race will determine which party controls the US Congress, and in turn shape the direction of President Donald Trump's final two years in office. It will also decide key state and local positions.

Midterm elections fall at the halfway point of a president's term, meaning the executive office will not be on the ballot. Front and centre will be the battle for control of Congress.

Two chambers make up the US legislature: the House of Representatives and the Senate. Because members of the House serve two-year terms, all 435 seats in the chamber are up for election on November 3. However, most races are already considered formalities, with a clear frontrunner.

That leaves only a handful of races — about 50 — to decide who will win the House majority. While subject to change, nearly every reputable election prognosticator has predicted that Democrats will win control of the House, some by as many as 15 seats.

The Senate picture is different. That chamber has only 100 seats, but because senators have staggered six-year terms, only 35 seats are up for election. Only about a dozen of those races are considered competitive.

Still, Democrats have seen their odds of seizing the Senate increase, as the number of competitive races has grown. Left-wing candidates have made inroads in deep-red states like Texas and Kansas, creating more opportunities for the Democratic Party to claim a Senate majority in this election cycle. Because the US vice president breaks ties in the Senate, Democrats would need 51 seats to control the chamber.

Republicans currently hold majorities in both chambers of Congress, with 53 seats in the Senate and 218 in the House. With Trump in the White House, the party has held a so-called government 'trifecta' over the last two years, with three levers of power under its command.

The Republican majorities in Congress have helped Trump pass some of his signature legislation, including surging funding to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and cleaving back some forms of publicly funded healthcare as part of a sweeping 2025 tax bill.

But Republicans' numbers have not been enough to pass Trump's entire legislative wishlist. Notably, he has been unable to pass his signature federal voter identification law, dubbed the 'SAVE America Act', amid Democratic opposition.

Congress passes laws and approves federal budgets. But even if a party secures a majority in both chambers, it may not be enough to control the country's legislative agenda. Laws can pass by a simple majority in the House, but they typically need a supermajority of 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a process known as the filibuster.

Even if legislation passes both chambers, the president can veto any bill that comes across his desk. Overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds supermajority in both the House and the Senate, which is exceedingly rare. The last time it happened was in January 2021, during Trump's first term, when he saw his support from Republican lawmakers dissipate as he attempted to veto a defence spending bill.

If the Republican Party maintains control of both the House and Senate in November's race, its majorities could continue to help Trump's legislative agenda. But lawmakers will be keeping an anxious eye on voter sentiment as the 2028 elections approach, and with Trump unable to seek a third term, some Republicans may have more appetite to publicly oppose the lame-duck president during the next two years.

If Republicans maintain control of the Senate but lose the House, they would still be able to help Trump confirm his nominees for key federal roles. Hundreds of federal positions require approval from a simple majority in the Senate, including roles in the judiciary, including Supreme Court justices.

For Democrats, the most significant outcome of winning a majority in one or both chambers would be the ability to block Trump from legislating his agenda over the next two years. Analysts expect a Democrat-led Congress to take a largely defensive stance, batting down Trump's proposals.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has laid out a 100-day plan for if Democrats take control of the chamber. Topping the agenda are votes on Trump-backed healthcare funding cuts, asserting congressional authority over the US-Israel war with Iran and rolling back Trump's tariff programme.

As Trump rallies on behalf of Republicans in the run-up to November's vote, he has repeatedly expressed concern that Democratic control of Congress could lead to his third impeachment. Trump was already impeached twice during his first term. 'If we don't win, they'll end up impeaching me,' he told a rally in Durant, Oklahoma, in early October.

If Democrats do take control of the House or the Senate, they will take over leadership of dozens of committees. Through those committees, they can launch investigations — with subpoena power — into an array of subjects. Some Democrats have already said probing allegations of Trump family corruption will be a top priority.

Overall, analysts say a Democratic surge is likely to signal discontent with the Trump administration, but there will not be a swift, tangible change on many of the issues that have defined the election season; any gains would most likely be hard-fought, slow-coming and incremental.