France divided over who to blame for Saturday's riots as politics heats up six months before the presidential election

"This is not the face of France! You media all focus on the violence and destruction of Saturday's protests. But that's not the majority. It's not 'us'. That's not France!" Elisabeth was speaking in front of a row of smashed shop windows on a tree-lined Parisian street, shattered glass still littering the pavement and walls daubed with red-lettered graffiti insulting the French police, signed with the date of the riots, 17 October. As she spoke, she seemed close to tears.

But what exactly happened on Saturday? Who was behind the riots? While much of the looting seemed opportunistic, the violence looked pre-planned. Why orchestrate it now, after weeks of student protests, and who stands to gain most from the destruction? Elisabeth was not entirely sure. Black-and-white answers may be appealing, but in truth many factors are at play.

The president of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, has proposed a parliamentary inquiry into the riots and how they were organised. French intelligence had briefed government circles earlier this month that left-wing anarchist groups were involved in the student protests. Their signature — a capital A circled in black — was spray-painted on many buildings across France this weekend.

French media have played and replayed a video shot on Saturday showing groups of young men dressed in black, faces hidden by black kerchiefs, apparently attacking police vans with what look like large hammers or machetes. A French intelligence report dated 29 September, published by the newspaper Le Figaro, details the manipulation of student demonstrations by student unions and political movements aligned with the radical left. It suggests the far-left political movement La France Insoumise (LFI) was relying on violence as an electoral strategy ahead of the 2027 presidential elections.

The mass looting of what is said to be more than 3,000 shops and businesses on Saturday appears to have been largely opportunistic, according to French reports. Many youngsters immediately went online trying to sell their stolen wares, including designer trainers; some did not even bother to cover their faces. Online sales platforms now say they will work with the French authorities to track down as many of the looters as possible. Police say they are examining CCTV and social media footage, and President Macron insists all those responsible for violence or theft will be brought to justice.

Suggestions that some were encouraged to join the violence by social media posts have led former prime minister Gabriel Attal, a hopeful in the upcoming presidential election, to call for selected social media blackouts to quell further violence. Neighbouring Belgium has also experienced violent protests in recent days. On Tuesday, Belgium's interior minister Bernard Quintin warned of the 'TikTokisation' of violence: footage of riots is widely shared on social media, reaching a large audience of impressionable young people. He also blamed violence on the streets of Brussels and Liège on 'known far-left groups'.

In France, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu and his interior minister Laurent Nuñez have clearly implicated the 'hard left' in Saturday's mayhem — 'pouring oil onto the fire,' said Nuñez. On Tuesday Lecornu spoke of 'insurrections' planned by 'small far-left and ultra-left groups'. Previously he had accused the far left of weaponising the student demonstrations.

That is something the anti-capitalist LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who also hopes to become French president, has vehemently denied. Mélenchon took part in Saturday's planned protest. Politicians from his movement have been present at the student demonstrations since they started a month ago in the socially deprived outskirts of Paris, with demands for better state education for all.

In the Saint-Denis suburb on Monday, Lisa Cordat of the FSE student union said students organised themselves via social media messaging or through student-led organisations. She said it was 'insulting' to suggest they were being manipulated or 'told to do this, or do that' by politicians. 'Student anger comes from the ground up,' she said.

There is also a palpable frustration among many in France at what they see as the politicisation of Saturday's violence. Lina, who is 25, said: 'Politicians are hunting for scapegoats but don't ask why it all happened — the root causes of Saturday. We feel scared and abandoned.' France's leading politicians have indulged in a festival of finger-pointing since Saturday.

The presidential election in six months' time is hotly contested, and the volatility on French streets has funnelled immediately into the country's already febrile politics. Mélenchon, currently running second in most polls ahead of centrist candidates, accused the centrist prime minister of being 'responsible for the chaos' — either through 'incompetence or a worst-case strategy.' He went on to apparently imply that Lecornu may have allowed the violence to unfold so as to position his camp as a 'party of order' after Saturday's lawlessness, 'that would make people forget his failure in public finances.' France is struggling with spiralling public debt and government borrowing costs.

As for the intelligence failures on Saturday, President Macron has demanded explanations and a new policing strategy. The interior minister admitted there were not enough officers on the streets, despite the nationwide protests being publicised well in advance. Following accusations of heavy-handedness at earlier demonstrations, the police seemed very much out of their depth this weekend.

Of all the presidential hopefuls, it would seem Marine Le Pen of the anti-immigration National Rally party gains most politically from Saturday's shocking scenes; she is already well ahead in the polls. So as the argument over blame grows louder, France's division deepens — one side seeing planned far-left violence, the other the eruption of long-festering anger among deprived young people.