Lula and Bolsonaro Neck and Neck Ahead of Brazil Run-Off, Poll Shows Race Tightening

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain about even on the eve of Sunday's presidential election run-off, a CNT/MDA poll shows, with the gap between the two candidates narrowing further in recent days.

According to the poll released on Saturday, Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 46.3 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for the leftist Lula. Last week, the same pollster showed Bolsonaro leading Lula 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent.

MDA surveyed 2,032 people from October 21 to October 23, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points — meaning the current gap between the candidates falls within that margin, leaving the outcome effectively uncertain.

The poll comes the day after the final debate before the presidential run-off. In Friday's debate, the candidates questioned each other on Brazil's economy, infrastructure and regional development.

Bolsonaro accused the incumbent of allowing organised crime to expand, driving families into debt and not addressing the higher cost of living.

In reply, Lula, Brazil's first working-class president, said of Bolsonaro: 'He doesn't know what hunger is. He doesn't know Brazil.' With those words, Lula wielded his own life experience as his strongest weapon against his opponent.

Sunday's vote follows the initial round of voting on October 4, in which Bolsonaro finished first with 47 percent to Lula's 45 percent. Despite leading the first round, that advantage has now almost disappeared.

A Datafolha institute survey published on Thursday suggested the pair are now tied with 50 percent support each, compared with Bolsonaro's four-point lead in polls published two weeks ago.

The agreement between two separate polls suggests Lula has closed the gap in the final week and that the run-off will be decided by voters making up their minds at the last moment. Undecided voters are now the main target of both camps.

Brazil is Latin America's largest economy and most populous country, so the result will affect not only the country's domestic policies but also the political balance of the entire region.

Once Sunday's voting ends and results begin to arrive, it will become clear how far this neck-and-neck polling picture is reflected in reality — and whether Lula stays in power or the Bolsonaro family returns to it.