Why Egypt is so wary of getting involved in Yemen's conflict: the memory of a war six decades ago
As Egypt considers defending Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks, memories of its war in Yemen in the 1960s loom large. The hesitation in Cairo over becoming militarily involved in Yemen today is rooted in the experience of the 1962 intervention, which cost thousands of Egyptian soldiers their lives.
But this is not today's war — this is 1962, and Egyptian forces had arrived in Yemen in the thousands, backing the country's government in a civil war against rebels that threatened to overthrow it. The intervention came after Yemenis friendlier to the Arab nationalist ideology propagated by Egypt under President Gamal Abdel Nasser led a revolution that overthrew Zaidi Imam Mohammad al-Badr, a theocratic monarch. Egypt supported the republican forces against the Saudi-backed royalists.
Although the republican side was ultimately successful, Egyptian forces suffered heavy losses in Yemen and withdrew in the wake of their defeat in the 1967 war against Israel. It is that history which means suggestions of a new Egyptian intervention today bring back memories of that period for Egyptians.
Following some backlash against the suggestion of direct military intervention after comments by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the president emphasised on Wednesday that any military deployment would be focused on defending Saudi Arabia and would not involve any direct aggression against Yemen's Houthi rebels. On Thursday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty called for a political solution to the conflict.
The pressure has grown as Saudi Arabia has come under more intense Houthi attacks, including a strike on King Khalid international airport in Riyadh earlier this month which killed 13 people, including one Egyptian. It now appears the kingdom expects support from its longtime allies, including Egypt. Some countries, including Turkiye, Pakistan, France and the United Kingdom, have already deployed forces to Saudi Arabia in defensive operations or have indicated they are willing to do so.
Saudi Arabia has faced repeated Houthi ballistic missile and drone attacks as the war escalated over the past few months, particularly after a Saudi-backed Yemeni government counteroffensive against the Houthis began in early October. Saudi Arabia has supported that counteroffensive with air raids against the Houthis.
Egypt's National Defence Council said on October 18 that the country was ready to provide all necessary and possible support to Saudi Arabia to defend its safety and stability. Even so, Cairo has repeatedly made clear it has no intention of involving itself in direct attacks against the Houthis.
The difficulty is that even a defensive combat mission would involve deploying Egyptian forces outside the country's borders, so it requires approval from the Egyptian parliament. A vote is scheduled for Monday, after a weeklong delay to allow reticent lawmakers to deliberate on the move.
This apprehension is largely related to the government's desire to avoid foreign military entanglements and direct involvement in the US-Israel war on Iran and its allies. Active participation in attacks against the Houthis could open Egypt up to retaliation by the group or Iran. The Houthis have already shown they are capable of pinpoint attacks on vital civilian and military targets in Saudi Arabia.
An expansion of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping would also be highly damaging to Egypt's economy, as the country controls its northern entry point, the Suez Canal, and is heavily reliant on this waterway for trade. Fewer ships passing through the Red Sea means fewer fees paid to the Egyptian government. El-Sisi has said Egypt has already lost $20bn in potential revenues over the last few years due to regional instability, including previous attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US-Israel war on Iran. Disruptions to energy supplies via the Bab al-Mandeb, which the Houthis effectively control, would likely lead to higher oil prices and knock-on effects for net consumers such as Egypt.
There is also the historical aspect. While Egypt can argue its 1960s intervention was an overall success, with the republican side eventually victorious, the campaign in mountainous northwestern Yemen was brutal. Thousands of Egyptian soldiers were killed, and this was blamed by some for the military's lack of readiness in confronting Israel in 1967. Ahmad Dahshan, editor-in-chief of the Center of Arabic Eurasian Studies, points to the memory that Egypt went to Yemen, faced forces supported by Saudi Arabia and lost troops there — and that Egyptian troops could once again be killed in Yemen, this time on behalf of Saudi Arabia.
Egypt has not detailed what defensive military assistance it could provide. Judging by the support supplied by other countries aiding Saudi Arabia, this could include operating air defence equipment and interceptors to protect the kingdom from missiles and drones, or guarding sensitive sites. Even this could lead to the deaths of foreign soldiers, as Houthi strikes have so far targeted sites they perceive to be strategically important, including those where Egyptian personnel could be deployed. There is also potential for naval assistance in the Red Sea to protect shipping, and forces stationed on the Saudi-Yemeni border to reinforce security, which have also been targets. Dahshan says these troops would only be deployed, if at all, to contribute to the protection of Saudi territory, and that the discussion this time may be about ground troops being deployed to protect the Saudi border against any attempted Houthi incursion.
Egypt was officially part of the Saudi-led coalition to restore the Yemeni government in 2015, but played only a limited role in operations. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have played decisive roles during the war, with other countries such as Sudan at times contributing fighters on the ground. The UAE was allegedly a major supporter of the Southern Transitional Council and was eventually forced out of Yemen at the start of the year following a Saudi-backed government push to defeat southern secessionists. While Saudi air support has been a huge advantage for government forces, many observers say the pro-government side does not need additional manpower on the ground.
Mohammed al-Qadhi, an independent Yemeni political and conflict analyst, says the Yemeni government just needs political and economic support, as has been the case since the war started. It has enough fighters, he says; it lacks weapons and economic support, as well as logistical and technical support, and needs better coordination and command and control for the forces on the ground. On the prospect of Egyptian involvement, al-Qadhi said many Yemenis remain indebted to Egypt for its past support for the republic, cherishing the Egyptian role with pride and respect, and holding that without Egypt's role and Nasser's support the republic would not have existed. Yet he dismisses a similar role for the Egyptian army today — meaning respect for history remains, but present realities differ, and Monday's parliamentary vote will now decide how far Cairo goes.
