Two Visions Face Off in Montreal: Carney's Middle-Powers Alliance Versus Von der Leyen's Brussels-Centred Bloc
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meet in Montreal this week for a summit intended to chart a new course for transatlantic relations. Both want to demonstrate they can prosper in a world upended by U.S. President Donald Trump, but they have different ideas about their new alliance, and political resistance could limit how far the partnership can go.
Carney wants to help build a new world order through a global alliance of middle powers that can counterbalance the power of the United States and China. His vision, however, depends on a new relationship with a Europe that does not see itself as a middle power at all.
Von der Leyen has a different vision: a Brussels-centred bloc that extends the EU's economic and geopolitical influence, starting with Canada. According to senior European lawmaker Siegfried Mureșan, the idea is to create an opportunity for the EU to become the 'global center of gravity for liberal democracies.'
Von der Leyen's offer of 'associate membership' in the EU surprised officials on both sides of the Atlantic. Four diplomats said they were not consulted before she floated the idea in the State of the Union. The officials added that they do not understand the label, which has yet to be defined. Germany has since led pushback on the plan.
One of the diplomats said: 'We've definitely put the cart before the horse. We're announcing something and then figuring out how to flesh it out.'
Trump called the membership idea 'laughable,' but also threatened 'very serious tariffs' should it come to be.
Canada's Ambassador to the EU Jonathan Wilkinson said last month that people got too hung up on a label that was revealed prematurely. Carney called the Canada-EU relationship an 'alliance for the future' when he addressed European lawmakers in Strasbourg. Wilkinson said the Canada-EU project will show other democratic nations how to deepen partnerships, and that it ties into what Carney talked about at Davos, and after Davos.
In Montreal, Carney, von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa have two days to chart what is next. The leaders are under pressure to leave with more than a liberal democratic photo-op; for starters, they need to decide what 'associate membership' means and disarm resistance in the EU capitals blindsided by von der Leyen's plan.
Ottawa considers the EU an obvious partner in its push to diversify trade away from the United States. There is already a free-trade agreement that both sides view as underutilized. Leaders gathering in Montreal this week will celebrate the 10th anniversary of the Canada-EU trade agreement, nicknamed CETA. But nine EU member countries have yet to ratify the deal. CETA has been provisionally in force since 2017.
Canadian International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu told reporters last week in Dublin: 'We have shared challenges and many more shared opportunities. Canada wants to be Europe's most reliable partner.' He said CETA utilization rates in EU member countries range from 60% to 80%, meaning there is room to grow.
Trade talks between the two sides also carry a lengthy list of grievances. At a meeting between Brussels and Ottawa last October, the EU complained about Canadian taxes it says disproportionately hit European carmakers, opaque cheese-import quotas, cumbersome rules on cosmetics and discriminatory provincial taxes and markups on European wines and spirits. Canada, meanwhile, warned that the EU's deforestation rules could burden its exporters, questioned the impact of Brussels' carbon border tax and pressed for greater recognition of Canadian standards in areas including AI.
Industrial policies are another source of friction. Brussels has concerns about Ottawa's 'Buy Canadian' initiatives and their compatibility with the EU-Canada free trade agreement. Canada is likewise uncertain whether its companies will qualify for the EU's proposed 'Made in Europe' preferences, which would channel public procurement spending to European companies. The EU is divided over whether to extend those preferences to trusted trading partners, a topic expected to come up in Montreal.
Mark Camilleri, president of the Canada EU Trade and Investment Association, said concessions will be needed to move the relationship deeper. He likened the 10-year-old CETA deal to a garden overgrown with weeds, saying it pained him to see market access being eroded through Canadian and European preferences.
One likely deliverable is a new digital trade agreement. Talks launched in March and were still underway last week. But the agreement lacks substantive text on artificial intelligence, leaving the two sides to find other places to cooperate, potentially through the EU's proposed Cloud and AI Development Act. The European Commission is also pushing for Canada to join Erasmus+, the bloc's student exchange program, according to one EU official; Carney has already publicly expressed interest. Brussels is also pressing Canada to increase its funding for Ukraine.
