How Lula Came Back From a 2.2 Million-Vote First-Round Defeat: Youth Mobilisation and a Digital Pivot Turned Brazil's Run-Off

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has overturned a first-round defeat to win a historic fourth term in Sunday's run-off, defeating far-right rival Senator Flavio Bolsonaro even though he had trailed him by more than two million votes in the first round earlier in October.

According to the final tally, Lula secured 51.79 percent of valid votes, or 64.26 million ballots. Bolsonaro received 48.21 percent, or 59.83 million votes.

The first round on October 4 had produced the opposite picture. Bolsonaro won 47.03 percent against Lula's 45.16 percent, a lead of approximately 2.2 million votes. Lula, 80, is the first candidate since Brazil's return to democracy in 1985 to win a presidential run-off after finishing second in the opening round.

Turnout also rose in the second round. It stood at 80.8 percent on Sunday, nearly 2 percent higher than the 78.92 percent recorded in the previous round. An estimated 33.4 million Brazilians abstained in the first round, about 21 percent of the electorate; abstention fell to approximately 19 percent in the run-off.

Addressing cheering supporters at a victory parade in Sao Paulo, Lula said: "I just had to tell you that I love you. Tomorrow, the fight continues." He added: "No one is required to like the president-elect, but he must govern for everyone." Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.

Bolsonaro refused to concede and called for the run-off result to be annulled after Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered voting to be extended by two hours. Both candidates had requested extensions, citing transport disruptions and severe weather.

The controversy echoes the aftermath of the 2022 election, when Flavio's father, Jair Bolsonaro, refused to accept his defeat. He was subsequently convicted of plotting a coup and sentenced to 27 years in prison, which he is serving under house arrest.

Experts say, however, that Flavio faces significant obstacles in overturning the result. Vinicius G. Rodrigues Vieira, an economics and international relations professor at the Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation, told Al Jazeera that Bolsonaro's legal arguments were weak, particularly because his own campaign had requested an extension. He said the argument was unlikely to resonate in the courts, but would certainly help Bolsonarismo, the far-right movement, to remain politically strong on the streets.

Analysts say Lula's comeback was driven by a revitalised grassroots campaign, youth mobilisation and a shift towards digital campaigning. Al Jazeera correspondent Monica Yanakiew, reporting from Sao Paulo, said young Brazilians spontaneously organised online after Bolsonaro's first-round victory, creating what became known as "Lula's army". She said it was this army that went to the streets, with millions of people across Brazil, and that young people mobilised themselves and energised a campaign that had frankly not been very energised before the first round.

Gustavo Ribeiro, editor-in-chief of The Brazilian Report, said Lula's campaign had initially appeared complacent, acting in the first round as if the election was in the bag and running an anachronistic, mostly offline campaign. He said the campaign really pivoted towards a digital mentality and a grassroots effort, and that Lula had used the power of incumbency very cleverly in his favour.

Other experts agreed that Bolsonaro's own mistakes likely contributed to his defeat. Professor Vieira argued that the senator became overconfident after winning the first round, behaving in the first week as if he were already the president-elect and appointing ministers. He said arrogance is something Brazilian people do not like, so Flavio is paying a very high price for it. Ribeiro also questioned Bolsonaro's political appeal, saying he does not have his father's charisma and was essentially running on his father's last name.

Fernando Brancoli, an international relations professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said a large number of people who did not vote in the first round now showed up. He also suggested some first-round Bolsonaro voters may have switched to Lula, although detailed voting patterns remain unclear.

Despite his victory, Lula faces a conservative-dominated Congress that could severely restrict his legislative agenda. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party and its allies could control more than 280 seats out of 513 in the lower house, and up to 50 out of a total of 81 Senate seats, potentially giving the opposition majorities in both chambers. Brancoli warned that Lula's government would not be able to push for a broad agenda, would get small wins, and would have to negotiate with those groups.

Economic pressures pose another considerable challenge. Brazil's public debt has exceeded 82 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the World Bank, while the government forecasts growth of just 2.3 percent next year. Brancoli also asserted that Lula would need to address security and household debt, two issues that helped make the election competitive. The president's age raises further questions about the future of his Workers' Party (PT) and who would replace the longtime leader; as Brancoli noted, there is no one who could substitute him, and he is older.