After Vucic's Fall, Which Way for Serbia's Foreign Policy: Tidying Up at Home Comes First, Analysts Say

Serbia has reached a watershed moment after Sunday's election delivered a historic victory for the opposition Student List, ending 14 years of rule by Aleksandar Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). As Belgrade prepares for a turbulent transition and presidential elections in December, neighbours and international observers are asking whether Vucic's departure will shift Serbia's foreign policy.

Analysts warn that while many expect a quick pivot to the West when an authoritarian regime falls, internal consolidation will take immediate priority in Serbia and any transformation will be gradual.

The SNS defeat has brought cautious optimism and uncertainty across the Western Balkans. Serbia's relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro and Kosovo were often frayed by Vucic's nationalistic rhetoric.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, told Al Jazeera that a rapid reset in regional relations was unlikely. 'These questions will not be on the agenda immediately,' he said, referring to relations with Serbia's neighbours.

The new authorities will first have to tackle domestic problems, Popov said, including a system that has captured all democratic institutions, as well as problems in the judiciary, prosecution service, police and media sector. 'Tidying up at home' will take priority before 'solving problems with the neighbours', he said.

Croatia is the thorniest case, Popov suggested. Relations are not frozen, but neither are they as they should be between neighbours, and are marked by frequent sharp words. Amid recent mass protests, Vucic accused Zagreb of organising a 'colour revolution'. Popov also said relations with Montenegro are disrupted and issues with Bosnia and Herzegovina remain unresolved.

Popov expressed hope that a new government led by experts and civic leaders would work towards stabilising the region and revive Serbia's hopes of joining the European Union. 'The previous government sabotaged EU integration and the EU will not accept a country without good neighbourly relations. The new government's task will be to repair those damaged ties,' he said.

Under Vucic, Serbia maintained a delicate balancing act, refusing to impose sanctions on Russia despite heavy pressure from the EU, while simultaneously allowing ammunition to flow indirectly to Ukraine.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King's College London, told Al Jazeera that of all elements of Serbian public policy, foreign policy will transform the least under the forthcoming changes. Many structures shaping Serbian foreign policy will remain, he said, adding that Moscow never fully trusted Vucic but viewed him as 'the devil they knew'.

Russian influence will take a blow, Vuksanovic said, with the end of uncritical glorification of Moscow in Vucic-controlled tabloids and media and intelligence cooperation to be downgraded, but the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight. The country still needs preferential gas prices, the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved and parts of the public remain disillusioned with the West. He said the new government will not see value in joining EU sanctions or adopting a hawkish stance toward Moscow; on Ukraine, Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognising the annexation of Crimea and Donbas, though there is a question mark over ammunition deliveries to Kyiv.

Another critical dimension is Serbia's close relationship with Israel. Under Vucic, Serbia built a strong partnership with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, marked by arms trade and technology exchanges. Foreign policy analyst Bosko Jaksic told Al Jazeera that while ties will not be severed, recent controversial agreements will face scrutiny, primarily those concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia.

Jaksic also suggested that the policy of 'sitting on multiple chairs', which brought Serbia more harm than good, will certainly be re-evaluated, and that it is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU. But all the analysts agree that as Serbia enters a new political era, the international community should expect intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments.