Fuel and Fertiliser Costs From Iran War Threaten Africa's Food Security, Trade Officials Warn in Doha

Trade ministers and the United Nations' top trade official warned in Doha, Qatar, that African countries are feeling the economic fallout from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with rising fuel and fertiliser prices threatening to drive up food costs.

Luz Maria de la Mora, director of the Division on International Trade and Commodities at UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), told Al Jazeera at the World Investment Forum on Monday that the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz due to the United States and Israel's war on Iran needs to be resolved 'sooner rather than later'. She warned that soaring fertiliser prices could affect harvests next year.

'Prices of fertilisers have risen dramatically … so many countries have decided to reduce the use of fertilisers, which will have an effect next year in terms of crops,' de la Mora said. 'It may have an effect on availability of food and prices of food.'

The war on Iran has highlighted the world's heavy reliance on the strategic waterway, through which one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade previously passed.

Doha hosted UNCTAD's World Investment Forum on October 25 and 26, bringing together heads of state, policymakers, CEOs and investors to discuss global investment and sustainable development.

In Zimbabwe, rising fuel and fertiliser prices are a critical concern in a country where more than 70 percent of the population depends on agriculture, Monica Mutsvangwa, the country's minister of women affairs, community, small and medium enterprise development, told Al Jazeera.

Uganda, another heavily agrarian economy, has also been hit, with fuel prices more than doubling, Sanjay Tanna, the country's minister of trade, industry and cooperatives, told Al Jazeera.

Rising oil prices have also disrupted supply chains, with effects lasting longer than anticipated, according to de la Mora. 'The effects are lasting longer than we would have expected or would have wanted,' she said.

Uganda's reliance on subsistence farming has helped cushion the impact, with domestic food production offering some protection from international market volatility, said Tanna. But the country has not been insulated from financial pressures: its currency has lost 10 percent of its value against the US dollar, the minister said, and the Ugandan shilling has steadily declined since mid-2026.

For Zimbabwe, the crisis has reinforced the importance of attracting investment while maintaining economic ties across geopolitical divides, amid the simmering trade war between the US and China. 'We are a friend to all and an enemy to none,' Mutsvangwa said. 'Money has no color … If we get an investor who comes into our country, follows the rules and regulations of the country, makes his money, and Zimbabwe develops, that's what we want.' She pointed to Zimbabwe's deposits of more than 60 critical minerals, including lithium and graphite, as well as its tourism potential.

That investment remains concentrated in a relatively small number of countries is 'very understandable', de la Mora said, arguing that investors need confidence that their money will generate returns. 'Capital is risk averse. Capital needs to have certainty that its investment is going to yield returns and it's going to come to fruition,' she said. Governments can help build that confidence through transparent institutions, the rule of law and investment in infrastructure, including reliable electricity, energy supplies and digital connectivity, she added.

Asked whether the international trading system treats all countries equally, Uganda's trade minister was blunt. 'Of course not,' said Tanna. 'The world cannot be equal … It's unfair, but we believe that, within the space that we are in, we are in a good space.' Uganda was well placed for the future, he argued, because it produces its own food — an advantage at a time when international supply chains are under pressure.

The Republic of Congo's Deputy Prime Minister for Coordination, Development Infrastructure and Land Planning, Jean-Jacques Bouya, said the country had aligned its national development plan, Vision 2063, with the African Union's broader development ambitions, and that connectivity — through electricity, digital infrastructure and physical links — is central to that strategy. The country also wants to expand local processing so that more value from its natural resources remains within the country. 'Africa can no longer be a reservoir of raw materials, and neither can Congo — a place where raw materials are extracted, taken elsewhere, processed and then sold back to us at a much higher price. We cannot go on like this,' Bouya said.