Seven Years On, the Equation Has Changed: India Losing Faith in Trump Ahead of the US Midterms

In 2019, at a joint rally in Houston, Texas, attended by more than 50,000 Indian Americans, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi heaped praise on United States President Donald Trump. 'Every time [we meet], he has been the same: warm, friendly, accessible, energetic, and full of wit,' he said of Trump. Borrowing a line from his own successful election campaigns, Modi said: 'Abki baar, Trump sarkaar!' — Hindi for 'This time, a Trump government.'

That was in 2019, ahead of the 2020 US presidential vote, when Trump was facing a major electoral test — seeking re-election to a second term. Modi was, in effect, galvanising support for him among the Indian-American community, the wealthiest diaspora in the US.

Seven years later, the picture could not be more different. As Trump prepares for difficult midterm elections that could see him lose significant numbers in the US Congress, potentially crippling his legislative agenda, analysts say New Delhi may now actually hope that midterm losses leave the president chastened.

In recent weeks, Indian officials have been more direct than ever in their criticism of Trump's administration, amid a series of setbacks to bilateral ties. India usually addresses divisive issues with friendly nations quietly, behind the scenes, but months of tensions on a string of issues have pushed New Delhi to adopt a more openly critical tone towards the White House.

Last month, speaking at an event in New York, India's foreign minister S Jaishankar shared a pointed, blunt assessment of the Trump administration: it has been an insensitive partner to India's concerns over 'terrorism'; has warmed to its archrival Pakistan; and has pursued 'self-centred' trade policies that have disproportionately hurt the Global South. 'Countries should not be so self-centred that you're in your own world and take your decision, and say, "Well, it was not my intention to make your life difficult",' he said.

One of the biggest sticking points between both capitals is an elusive trade deal that could bring relief to India, among the worst-hit countries under Trump's tariff regime. Earlier this month, India's finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the negotiations had reached a 'plateau beyond which giving or taking might be very difficult'.

Trump's Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement has also often targeted Indians and Indian Americans, accusing them of 'stealing' jobs in the United States via programmes like the H-1B visa scheme. Anti-Indian rhetoric on US social media is at an all-time high. Early in his second term, Trump sent many undocumented Indian immigrants back home shackled in chains — a visual that stirred outrage in India.

Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia programme at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the Indian government 'can tolerate genuine policy differences with a US administration'. However, 'the attacks on India and Indian Americans coming from this administration, and many of their allies in the media and on social media, have struck a nerve,' he said. Vaishnav, like other analysts, said that despite the recent criticism from New Delhi, 'the Modi government has shown admirable restraint in its response'.

Since Trump returned to office in 2025, the US-India relationship has been beset by a seemingly never-ending series of crises: punitive US tariffs and stalled trade negotiations; Washington's pressure on India to stop buying Russian oil; Trump's repeated claims that he mediated an India-Pakistan ceasefire in 2025, which New Delhi rejects; closer US ties with Pakistan despite India's concerns over 'terrorism'; higher H-1B specialised worker visa fees, and Trump's wider immigration crackdown affecting Indian workers.

At one point, India was among the countries facing the worst Trump-imposed tariff rates. After the US Supreme Court in February struck down Trump's sweeping tariffs on numerous nations, his administration swiftly turned to other tools, including a new 10 percent global tariff.

Last month, Trump signed a law under which the US can impose up to 100 percent tariffs on countries like India that buy Russian oil. However, he paused it to avoid driving up energy prices in the US ahead of November's midterm elections, while keeping negotiations with Russia over Moscow's war in Ukraine on track.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited India's financial hub Mumbai this week but skipped the capital. In an interview with The Indian Express, Rubio said 'none of these tariffs are meant to punish or harm India', arguing that Trump had paused the tariff because he understood it would have a very detrimental impact on a very important relationship with India. But Rubio did not rule out that similar measures would return in a matter of time.

Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera: 'Under Trump 2.0, the bipartisan consensus on India seems to have ended in Washington.' He said the measures taken by the Trump administration 'have brought back distrust of the US among the Indian strategic establishment'.

The upcoming US midterm elections are crucial for Trump. If he loses control of Congress for the final two years of his presidency, it would give Democrats more power to scrutinise his administration's policies. Trump is facing the worst approval ratings of his political career amid record-high gas prices in the US due to the global energy crisis triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran, which began in February this year.

Vaishnav said 'a chastened Trump would be in India's interests'. He said a Democrat-dominated Congress could have a 'moderating impact' on Washington's foreign policy, noting that many Democrats on Capitol Hill, not to mention Republicans, are livid with this administration's handling of US-India ties.

But Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based analyst on South Asia, said he doubts Trump's foreign policy would be affected by the election results, 'at least not when it comes to the question of India'. Kugelman noted that Trump is entering the last era of his presidency — he cannot legally run for a third term — and will continue to pursue the policy he thinks could best advance US economic interests in dealing with New Delhi, which could entail threatening additional tariffs on India.

Donthi said New Delhi would hope that bilateral relations improve after Trump leaves office, and that Washington can take a more patient, strategic approach.