Next major war could begin in space as US assessment details China and Russia anti-satellite capabilities

The opening moves of the next major war could unfold hundreds of miles above Earth. US adversaries are looking at ways to blind American forces in future conflict by jamming communications, disabling GPS, using lasers to attack satellites or destroying them completely.

A sweeping new Defense Intelligence Agency assessment details how China and Russia are developing sophisticated ways to disrupt or destroy US satellites. This includes a Russian satellite designed to carry a nuclear weapon into Earth's orbit.

American forces rely on satellites to communicate across battlefields, navigate ships and aircraft, track enemy forces, detect missile launches and guide precision weapons to their targets. Knocking those systems offline could leave forces below struggling to see, communicate and strike.

Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said military operations cannot be conducted the way they are today without satellites and systems in space. Whoever has space and can deny that to their adversary has a huge asymmetric advantage in a conflict, he said.

Beyond the battlefield, satellites underpin everything from GPS navigation and communications to banking, transportation and the electric grid, meaning a large-scale attack in space could disrupt services millions of people rely on every day.

Chinese military thinkers have identified reconnaissance, communications, navigation and early-warning satellites as potential targets for attacks designed to blind and deafen the enemy, according to the report. The DIA assesses Beijing could begin threatening or gradually degrading an adversary's space architecture during a crisis as a prelude to war.

Russia, meanwhile, views US reliance on satellites for precision strikes and projecting military power as a critical vulnerability to exploit during a conflict. Its doctrine envisions attacks ranging from temporary jamming and blinding satellite sensors to the outright destruction of spacecraft and the infrastructure supporting them.

The DIA describes the threat as a continuum, beginning with attacks that can temporarily disrupt a satellite without destroying it and escalating through cyber and orbital attacks to kinetic weapons and, ultimately, a nuclear detonation in space.

Some of those tactics have already made their way into active conflict. During Operation Epic Fury, the US and Iran took offensive actions against each other's space capabilities to degrade and disrupt military actions on both sides, according to the DIA. The report does not detail those operations, but says jamming near the Strait of Hormuz in June disrupted US aircraft and shipping vessels.

The Chinese military already practices jamming satellite communications and GPS during military exercises. Beijing also has ground-based lasers capable of disrupting or damaging satellites in low-Earth orbit, and the DIA assesses it could field space-based directed-energy systems by the late 2020s.

Other Chinese systems can get much closer. The Shijian-17 satellite has a robotic arm capable of grappling another satellite, while Shijian-21 used similar technology in 2022 to move a defunct Chinese navigation satellite into a higher orbit. The DIA noted that the same technology used to service or remove satellites can also have military applications.

Russia has repeatedly put its own spacecraft near US satellites. Cosmos 2543 began following a US national security satellite after it was released into orbit in 2019, approaching it several times before later firing a projectile in what the DIA described as an anti-satellite weapons test.

Russia sent Cosmos 2558 near another US government satellite in 2022, and two years later launched Cosmos 2576 into the same orbit as a US national security satellite before it began moving toward the American spacecraft. By 2025, Cosmos 2588 was maneuvering within roughly 93 kilometers of another US government satellite.

Russia is also developing Burevestnik, an air-launched weapon intended to kill satellites in low-Earth orbit, according to the DIA. The weapon would be launched from a modified MiG-31 aircraft and could be placed into orbit with little or no warning.

The assessment states that Russia is developing a satellite designed to carry a nuclear weapon. Such a weapon could cause the rapid and sudden loss or degradation of thousands of satellites operated by governments and companies around the world, disrupting communications, navigation, weather forecasting and national security systems. The DIA warns that a nuclear detonation in space would leave behind radiation belts that could persist for years.

The threat has been on Washington's radar for years. Then House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner set off alarm bells in February 2024 when he called on the Biden administration to declassify intelligence about a serious national security threat, later revealed to involve a Russian nuclear anti-satellite capability. US Space Command chief General Stephen Whiting said in April that officials were very concerned by reports that Russia was potentially considering placing a nuclear anti-satellite weapon in orbit, but declined to confirm whether Moscow was actually developing one.