No majority for anyone in Israel: opposition courts Arab parties to oust Netanyahu, plans to replace speaker on day one

No side has won a majority to form a government alone in Israel's parliamentary election. In the final results, the coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won 53 seats. The opposition camp led by Gadi Eisenkot won 48 seats, while the Arab parties hold 19 seats. So in the 120-seat Knesset, both sides must look for alliances or support to reach the 61 seats needed to form a government.

With the aim of removing Netanyahu from power and forming an alternative government, top leaders of the opposition camp held meeting after meeting on Thursday (29 October). Getting the support of the Arab parties became the most important question in the talks, because adding the Arab parties' 19 seats to the opposition's 48 makes a total of 67 seats.

But there are differences within the opposition camp over cooperating with the Arab parties. Several parties of the opposition bloc are unwilling to form a government with the Arab parties. Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman made clear on Friday that he will not join any coalition with the support of the Arab parties. According to a Kan News report, Arab parties' support is needed even to change the speaker, which is objectionable to Lieberman; however, even if Lieberman abstains from voting, the opposition parties will retain a simple majority.

On the other hand, Democrats leader Yair Golan has publicly taken a position in favour of working jointly with the Arab parties. In an opinion article he said the votes of all Israeli citizens carry equal value, and disregarding their votes because of a citizen's identity is not consistent with the democratic system. Golan believes a stable government can be formed outside the Arab parties or with their support, which will work to protect Israel's democracy and security. Former defence minister Moshe Ya'alon has also strongly supported making Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas a minister in the government.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid sees the election result as a success for the anti-Netanyahu camp. On social media he said the opposition had hoped for an outright sweeping victory, which did not happen; but Netanyahu's coalition has fallen from 68 seats in the previous parliament to 53. In his words, "a win is a win."

Netanyahu, meanwhile, is also active in holding on to power. He is meeting partners of his right-wing coalition. In meetings with National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich, he discussed keeping the coalition's unity intact.

In the election results, Netanyahu's Likud party won 27 seats. Eisenkot's Yashar party won 21 seats and Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad won 12 seats. The Arab-led Joint List won 11 seats and Ra'am won 8. The election was held in Israel last Tuesday.

The power struggle is beginning inside the Knesset from the very first day, not only over government formation. Netanyahu's opposition parties have taken up a plan to quickly remove the current Knesset Speaker, Likud's Amir Ohana, from office. The step will be taken right after the new Knesset is sworn in next month.

The opposition "Change Bloc" — Yashar, B'Yachad, The Democrats and Yisrael Beiteinu — together with the Arab-led Joint List and Ra'am hold a total of 67 of the 120 Knesset seats. So the majority needed to remove Speaker Ohana is easily in their hands.

Channel 12 political analyst Barak Seri has said an agreement has already been completed on removing Ohana, and former prime minister Yair Lapid's name is also under consideration as the new speaker.

Democrats chairman Yair Golan told Channel 12 in an interview that after the 26th Knesset is sworn in, their "first task" will be to appoint a new speaker and the heads of Knesset committees. After that, a state commission of inquiry will be established into the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023. The vote for the speaker's post may be held on 10 November, the day the new Knesset is sworn in.

The swearing-in ceremony of the new Knesset is scheduled for 10 November. Government-formation talks will continue before that as well and may go on for several weeks. If no side can secure the necessary majority, fresh elections may ultimately be held. So in the coming days, Israel's next government-formation process will depend largely on the position of the Arab parties, internal understanding within the opposition camp, and Netanyahu's ability to hold his coalition together.