Three days to US midterms: Democrats lead polls by 8 points as early votes pass 43 million

With three days to go before the US midterm elections, Democrats are leading national polls as more than 43 million Americans have already cast early ballots. Both parties are making their final push ahead of Election Day on Tuesday.

According to RealClearPolling's latest national congressional ballot average, Democrats lead Republicans by 8.2 percentage points, by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent.

A separate Economist/YouGov survey released on Thursday found that 44 percent of registered voters expect Democrats to control the House of Representatives after the election, compared with 31 percent who expect Republicans to retain control.

Expectations were much closer for the Senate, with 39 percent expecting a Democratic majority and 36 percent expecting a Republican one.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Al Jazeera that a big Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling suggests the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats, but that the Senate is much more up in the air, even though it could also flip.

According to an Associated Press analysis released on Friday, more than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots five days before Election Day — nearly 10 million more than at the same point before the 2022 midterms, with some of the biggest increases in states with competitive Senate races.

In Texas, more than 6.3 million people had voted early as of Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same point in 2022, an increase of 50 percent. In Georgia, more than 2.5 million ballots had been cast by Friday morning, surpassing the 2.3 million recorded during the whole early voting period in 2022. Early voting also rose by more than 30 percent on 2022 in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas.

Early turnout figures, however, do not show which candidates voters chose or what the final results will be. Reporters in Houston and Atlanta noted more participation among young voters; one young voter said she wanted a better future for everyone, especially the next generation, while another pointed to social media for putting voting in the limelight.

President Donald Trump has reversed his decision to cancel two weekend rallies in Kansas and Iowa. The rallies were cancelled on Thursday, with the White House saying Trump would instead take part in nearly 20 telephone campaign events, but less than a day later both events were back in his schedule for Sunday, the White House confirmed.

Trump's campaign team sees his personal appearances as a way to mobilise Republican voters, especially in states where Republicans face strong opposition in Senate races. Campaigning in Florida on Friday, where Republicans are defending Senate and gubernatorial seats, Trump told the crowd: 'You got to vote. Bad things happen when you get too confident, right? So let's pretend they're one point down.'

Trump is scheduled to hold back-to-back rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday — in Iowa backing Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, then in Kansas campaigning with Senator Roger Marshall. In Kansas, Marshall faces a tough race against Democratic challenger megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton; an Emerson College poll puts Hamilton at 49 percent and Marshall at 45 percent.

Alaska's Senate race is one of seven key toss-ups likely to decide the Senate majority, complicated by a dispute involving two candidates named Dan Sullivan. Trump has accused Democrats of recruiting an independent candidate with the same name as the Republican senator to confuse voters. The Department of Justice has taken legal action over the dispute, while Democratic nominee Mary Peltola has denied involvement in the alleged recruitment.