Economy tops voter concerns before US midterms as polls point to Democratic edge for control of Congress

Americans will vote in the midterm elections on Tuesday, with the economy, the cost of living and immigration among the top issues in recent surveys. Democrats and Republicans share concerns about the rising cost of living, but surveys suggest differences in how they view the economy, President Donald Trump and other key issues.

In an NBC poll released on Sunday, 75 percent of respondents said they were dissatisfied with the state of the US economy, and 51 percent said they were dissatisfied with their personal financial situation.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted between September 28 and October 4 suggested that 84 percent of registered voters considered the economy very important to their midterm vote. It was the top issue for 82 percent of respondents who prefer Republican candidates, and 88 percent for those who back Democrats.

The two groups differed on other issues. About 85 percent of Democratic Party supporters considered the future of democracy very important, compared with 69 percent of Republicans. Healthcare was a priority for 82 percent of Democrats, compared with 53 percent of Republicans.

Republican supporters were more concerned about immigration, with 72 percent saying it was very important, compared with 53 percent of Democrats. Violent crime was also more important to Republican supporters, at 64 percent, compared with 37 percent of Democrats.

A KFF survey conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation from September 16 to 21 suggested 42 percent of registered voter respondents trusted Democrats more to handle healthcare costs, compared with 22 percent who trusted Republicans. On the cost of living, 39 percent trusted Democrats more, while 25 percent preferred Republicans.

Views of President Trump and his economic policies remain divided along party lines. In the Pew survey, 91 percent of Democratic respondents and those who leaned Democratic believed Trump's economic policies had made things worse. Among Republican supporters, 39 percent said his policies had improved the economy, 35 percent said they made conditions worse, and 25 percent said they had little effect.

In the November 1 NBC News poll, 40 percent of registered-voter respondents approved of Trump's overall job performance, compared with 60 percent who disapproved.

Americans are concerned about rising costs, but Democrats are more likely than Republicans to express negative feelings about economic conditions. In an October Pew survey, 36 percent of Republicans rated the US economy as excellent or good, compared with just 9 percent of Democrats or Democrat-leaning voters.

According to Pew, 82 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners were concerned about food and consumer prices, compared with 62 percent of Republicans and Republican leaners. Healthcare costs concerned 80 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans, while petrol and energy prices worried 81 percent of Democrats and 65 percent of Republicans.

A Fox News poll released on October 14 also had 74 percent of registered voter respondents rating the economy negatively, and 60 percent identified the cost of living as their biggest economic concern. The November 1 NBC News poll found that 53 percent of Republican respondents were dissatisfied with the state of the economy.

In the NBC poll, 51 percent of registered voters were dissatisfied with their personal financial situation, compared with 49 percent who were satisfied. It was the first time in 30 years of NBC polling that dissatisfaction with personal finances outweighed satisfaction.

In an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll on October 19-20, 38 percent of likely voters said their finances had gotten worse over the past year, 44 percent said they had remained about the same, and 15 percent said they had improved. A total of 51 percent of Democratic likely voters said their finances had deteriorated, compared with 21 percent of Republicans. In a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted from September 30 to October 5, 71 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans said their incomes had not kept pace with rising prices.

Eric Ham, a former Democratic congressional staffer and Senate national security adviser, said Trump's global tariffs and the US-Israel war on Iran had added to the financial pressure on American households. “Americans are paying more not just in terms of self-inflicted wounds that President Donald Trump implemented through tariffs,” Ham said.

Democratic voters reported higher enthusiasm about participating in the elections. In the Marist poll, 91 percent of likely Democratic voters were enthusiastic or very enthusiastic, compared with 86 percent of Republicans and 76 percent of Independents. In a KFF survey, Democratic candidate supporters were 25 percentage points more likely than Republican supporters to describe themselves as “more motivated” than usual to vote — 63 percent versus 38 percent. The November 1 NBC News poll also reported high interest, with 70 percent of registered voters rating their interest at nine or 10 on a 10-point scale. John Fury, a former Republican congressional staffer, said the final days of campaigning were focused on turnout: “This is not a persuasion election. This is a get-out-the-base election.”

Surveys conducted in the final weeks before the election suggested voters preferred Democratic candidates or Democratic control of Congress. An NBC poll conducted on October 28-30 and published on November 1 suggested 52 percent of registered voters preferred Democratic control of Congress compared with 45 percent who preferred Republican control. The Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from October 22 to October 26 suggested 53 percent of likely voters would vote for or lean towards Democratic candidates in their district, compared with 44 percent who supported Republicans. These surveys measure voting sentiment, but they do not reflect the results of individual races. The Pew Research Center also found that abortion and gun policy were less central to Democratic respondents in comparison with 2022, while among Republican voters, education policy and energy policy were less important than four years ago.