Major Construction Under Way Near Iran Missile Bases, Satellite Image Analysis Suggests

Iran appears to be undertaking significant new construction near at least two of its major missile sites and repairing bases damaged by months of US and Israeli air strikes, according to analysis of satellite images.

Analysts at British intelligence company MAIAR, who reviewed the photos, told BBC Verify that evidence of digging and new buildings is visible in satellite imagery taken in November at the Garmdareh military base in Karaj near the capital Tehran and at the Shahroud base in the north.

At least 12 other military sites, including missile complexes and air bases, appear to show signs of repairs, analysts said. New roofs have been built on destroyed buildings at the Kermanshah missile base in western Iran, near the border with Iraq, while damaged buildings and debris have been cleared at the Parchin military complex east of the capital, which has been repeatedly repaired despite a succession of air strikes.

Analysts said satellite images appear to show that significant construction has been completed at the Taleghan 2 facility at the Parchin military complex, with damaged buildings levelled and the aftermath of attacks on an underground bunker repaired and reinforced with concrete.

The excavations near Shahroud could potentially be related to the production of missiles, said Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst who focused on Iran. He said that because the nearby air base at Shahroud has been targeted multiple times in recent years, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is probably trying to find ways to move its production facilities underground.

A MAIAR analyst noted that Iran has a pattern of moving infrastructure underground to protect it from further strikes. Mark Mellett, a defence analyst and former head of the Irish military, said the construction of underground facilities had the added benefit of making it harder for outside observers to assess their extent and operational status.

The images from Karaj appear to show multiple vehicles, while improvements appear to have been carried out to the nearby airbase. Sam Lair, a research analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said the Karaj images appear to show a new portal for an underground facility.

The construction work is unlikely to be part of an effort to deceive foreign intelligence agencies, said Sean O'Connor, an analyst with the intelligence firm Janes. He said such a project would be costly and may achieve little.

A MAIAR analyst also identified new construction and excavations outside tunnel entrances near the city of Qom, close to the Fordo underground uranium enrichment complex, which has been bombed by both the US and Israel multiple times.

Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that the US could resume attacks on Iran after the midterm elections held earlier this week. But on Wednesday Vice-President JD Vance cited the war's unpopularity with voters for the Republicans' poor performance in this week's poll, saying it may have cost his party control of the Senate for the next six years.

The developments come after repeated assurances from the White House that US-Israeli attacks have depleted the Iranian armed forces, which President Donald Trump dismissed as a complete and total mess. A Pentagon spokesperson previously said the US had destroyed up to 90 percent of Iran's drone, ballistic missile and naval industrial base and significantly degraded the country's ability to launch drone and missile attacks.

But Iran claims it retains large stockpiles of missiles. Footage broadcast on state TV this week claimed to show dozens of missiles at the entrance to an underground facility in southern Iran. Back in August, state TV footage also claimed to show Khordad surface-to-air missiles emerging from a tunnel near the southern city of Bandar Abbas.

Mark Cancian, a military analyst with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said activity related to military assets would show that Tehran is bracing itself for further attacks by the US and Israel. He said the purpose is to better defend itself against future attacks, and that it also indicates a priority on rebuilding military capability rather than rehabilitating the economy.