Florida Republicans survived the national rout, but their ground looks shaky

After Tuesday night's near-annihilation of the Republican Party nationwide, a single red flag fluttered defiantly in Florida. The state, now a last bastion of the Maga movement that has dominated US politics for a decade, bucked the national trend once again.

Voters in the Sunshine State elected two close allies of Donald Trump into office: congressman Byron Donalds as its first Black governor, and Ashley Moody to the US Senate. But both margins of victory were under 3%, and that narrowness spread unease rather than relief through the Republican camp.

Only a generation ago, Florida was the ultimate swing state. In recent years it turned reliably red and became a stronghold of conservatism. From here, Trump plotted his remarkable political comeback from the wilderness of his 2020 defeat to Joe Biden, and the ashes of the January 6 riots.

Florida is not only Trump's home; it is where Ron DeSantis, the outgoing governor, molded so many of the policies that the president later expanded nationwide during his second administration. Attacks on LGBTQ+ communities, an aggressive, taxpayer-funded immigration crackdown and assaults on diversity, equity and inclusion, especially in higher education, were all weaned in the Sunshine State, bolstered by DeSantis's ultra-loyal legislature.

Now Florida finds itself facing something of a political retrenchment, as Trump's power wanes on the national stage and Republicans in the state reflect on a near-disaster. The narrow victories of Donalds and Moody were certainly something to celebrate, but against the stunning backdrop of Democratic upsets in South Carolina, Texas, Ohio and elsewhere, they looked pale.

Analysts say that being Republican flag bearers in a lonely new political era, with rejuvenated Florida Democrats unexpectedly snapping at their heels again, will bring an unfamiliar range of challenges and risks. Donalds will not enjoy the same fealty from the Republican-controlled legislature that the termed-out DeSantis did. Democrats made a net gain of 15 house seats in the state to strip the party's supermajority.

Aubrey Jewett, professor of political science at the University of Central Florida, said it is unlikely Donalds will have the clout that DeSantis had in his prime. In his words, DeSantis was almost all-powerful, getting almost anything he wanted. Donalds has presented himself as super Maga, Jewett said, but now he is in office he might not push it quite as much, if for no other reason than Trump himself is in a severely weakened position.

One element of Florida's political make-up that did not change this week, but which was engineered to, was the number of Republicans elected to the US House of Representatives. An aggressive mid-cycle gerrymandering by DeSantis failed to work: Democrats captured all four districts, out of Florida's 28, that were redrawn to disadvantage them, and held four others. Jewett called it, in this election cycle at least, a wash, a failed effort by Republicans, adding that Democrats were able to fight it to a standstill.

Florida's Democratic leaders celebrated those successes. The state party said on Wednesday in a post on X that Florida voters saw through the blatant power grab.

DeSantis, at a press conference the same day, characterized the nationwide Republican wipeout as close to an extinction-level event, and took credit for Florida holding the line. He said Florida Democrats had reached a high-water mark, asking: if you couldn't win in this year, what circumstances are going to create the opportunity for you to win statewide in Florida?

Yet the question remains how strong Maga's last stand will be in Florida, home to Mar-a-Lago, the president's prized citadel by the sea. The president will doubtless spend substantial chunks of time playing golf there during the final two years of what is now a lame-duck presidency, while rejuvenated Florida Democrats snap at his party's heels.