US strikes Iran again after Hormuz shipping attacks as mediators race to prevent wider war
The United States has again carried out air strikes on Iran following attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Mediator countries are working to prevent a large-scale war between the two countries amid a series of strikes and counter-strikes.
Two projectiles hit Iran's southern island of Qeshm on Friday night. The island has faced a series of air strikes in recent weeks targeting Iranian air defences and launchers. President Donald Trump described the strikes as "minor strikes". But concerns are growing that the war between the two countries could escalate further.
Iran's army said that in the early hours of Saturday it destroyed a US-made MQ-9 drone using a new system. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) separately claimed that on Friday its air defences intercepted an MQ-1 drone. According to its claim, this was the 16th aircraft of this model destroyed since the start of the war.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said at least 11 ships were attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz in the week ending on November 6, and three of them sank. The agency also said it has recorded 88 projectile strikes since hostilities resumed in early July. It cautioned, however, that most attacks are going unreported.
UKMTO's weekly report said there were 170 outbound and 155 inbound transits through the strait during that period. That is approximately 65 percent below pre-conflict levels. Most vessels travelling with their transponders switched on are now using the Iranian route to the north. But many ships are still trying the southern route near Oman with their tracking systems offline to move oil out of the waterway.
Iran's naval force said on Saturday that a tanker with its transponder turned off caught fire in the eastern area of the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a mine. The Iranian forces claim that, in addition to missile and drone attacks, tankers and commercial vessels using "unauthorised" routes also risk being hit by naval mines. Washington says the mines have been cleared.
For years, the IRGC said it was limiting the range of its ballistic missiles to about 2,000 kilometres to reassure European countries that they would not be targeted. But with Trump threatening to resume extensive air strikes on Iran's civilian infrastructure, commanders now say nothing is off limits.
IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi told reporters during an event on Saturday, "This limitation has been lifted for us," referring to the missile range constraint. His comments came after Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered an unrestrained military response to any future threats from Israel and the US.
Mohebbi said the IRGC's aerospace division has prepared "surprising defence achievements" that will be deployed if another wave of major attacks starts. He said unveiling these advanced achievements would frustrate and fascinate enemies, further solidify Iran's military authority on the global stage, and fully neutralise the aggressors' calculations.
The spokesman said the IRGC plans to unveil another underground "missile city" soon, and will deploy some combat systems to public spaces so people can personally inspect them. He added that if the Islamic republic decides to alter its nuclear doctrine and build a bomb, the necessary preparations will be made.
On state television's war-focused programme Be Vaght-e Iran (At Iran's Time) over the weekend, presenters and analysts said Iranian armed forces had their fingers on the trigger and were especially watching any movement from Israel. One analyst said, "Our military information about the strategic chokepoints of Israel is complete. If our water, electricity and natural gas is cut off, they will also be plunged into darkness and lack of water. This is not a bluff, but a serious warning."
Over recent weeks, diplomatic efforts by mediators to avoid attacks that could damage the entire region have picked up, although with limited gains. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday that he held talks with 12 foreign ministers over the past 48 hours, including top diplomats from Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
Araghchi said he explained Tehran's "fundamental positions", including seven demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He also stressed the need to form "regional security arrangements without the interference of superregional powers".
Security chief Mohsen Rezaei reportedly emphasised the same conditions to Russian President Vladimir Putin during a visit to Moscow on Thursday, which was also aimed at delivering a message from Khamenei.
Political analyst Mostafa Najafi, who is said to be close to Iran's security chief, said developments between Iran and the US resemble a "constant pendulum swing between war and negotiations" that is increasingly leaning towards conflict. He wrote on X, "What is clear for now is that the movement of this pendulum will continue; a conflict whose ending is much more complicated and time-consuming than imagined."
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said three factors increase the risk of war in the short term after this week's historic defeat for Trump and the Republicans in the US midterm elections, unless negotiations lead to a breakthrough. First, the political cost of high fuel prices, brought about largely by the war on Iran, has already been paid, so pressure to reach a deal will dissipate. Second, pressure from pro-war hawks will escalate significantly because they will be constrained in stepping up the conflict after the Democrats take control of Congress in early January. Third, the appointment of far-right, pro-Israel hawk Stephen Miller as chief of staff hints that Trump might not be ready to wind down the war. Parsi added, "Finally, there is a new psychological element to Trump's mindset following this humiliation: Trump's desire for vengeance. There has been a vindictive element to his calculations in the past weeks because of his anger over how Iran, in Trump's mind, has ruined his presidency."
