AI to warn of floods up to seven days ahead, changing the face of early warning

Climate change is increasing the risk of floods, cyclones, droughts and other natural disasters around the world. In some places there is excessive rain, in others prolonged drought, and elsewhere rising sea levels are threatening people's lives and livelihoods.

These disasters cannot be prevented entirely, but early warning, risk assessment and disaster-resilient infrastructure can greatly reduce deaths and damage. Artificial intelligence (AI), satellite data analysis, smart sensors and modern forecasting technology are opening up new possibilities in this work.

AI-based forecasting systems analyse rainfall, river water levels, weather patterns and past disaster data to determine likely flood risk. That gives an early idea of where and when a flood may occur, how high the water may rise and which settlements are most at risk.

As a result, people can be moved to safe places, livestock and crops can be protected and emergency preparations can be made before the disaster strikes.

Google's 'Flood Hub' is one such initiative. According to the company, the system can provide flood forecasts for about two billion people in more than 150 countries. In some cases it can issue warnings about likely flood conditions up to seven days in advance.

Climate-resilient infrastructure, innovation and the use of technology are also being discussed at the UN climate conference COP31, under way in Antalya, Turkey.

Such technology is especially important for a flood-prone country like Bangladesh. The northern region, haors, chars and riverbank areas face flood risk during the monsoon. When water rises quickly, farmers often cannot harvest ripe paddy or move livestock to safety in time.

With advance warning, farmers can prepare to harvest their crops, fishermen can return safely and the local administration can prepare shelters and take other necessary measures.

But producing a forecast alone is not enough; the information must also reach people at risk quickly and in simple language. Smart sensors are being installed in rivers for this purpose. These devices collect data on water level, current speed and rainfall and send it automatically to a central system. When the water level approaches the danger mark, the authorities concerned can be warned. Residents can also be alerted by text message or other digital means.

In several countries, efforts are also under way to change the design of homes and infrastructure to reduce disaster risk. In flood-prone areas, houses are being built that can rise as the water level increases. These are called floating or amphibious houses. They rest on the ground in normal times and float up with the water with the help of a special structure.

Climate and environment expert Professor Dr Kamruzzaman Majumder believes there is no alternative to building infrastructure that takes disaster risk into account. High foundations, strong roofs and walls and storm-resilient construction techniques are being used in various countries. Floating houses could also be a promising solution in flood-prone areas. There is scope to use such technology experimentally in Bangladesh's haor, char and coastal low-lying areas.

Experts, however, believe technology used abroad cannot be applied directly in Bangladesh. Local river currents, water depth, wind speed, soil type and people's financial capacity must be taken into account. The initial cost of building floating houses, their maintenance and durability are also important matters. Any technology must therefore be tested against local realities before it is introduced.

There are also initiatives to make Bangladesh's early warning system more effective. According to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), a national roadmap is in place to expand multi-hazard early warning systems in the country from 2025 to 2030. Its aim is to increase the capacity to collect and analyse weather and disaster-related information and to deliver warnings to people at risk.

According to Alamgir Kabir, general secretary of the Bangladesh Poribesh Andolon (BAPA), weather observation centres, radar, marine buoys and digital risk maps need to be improved. The system for sending rapid alerts by mobile phone must also be strengthened. In particular, 'cell broadcast' technology can send emergency alerts to all mobile phones in a specific area at once, without relying on previously registered numbers.

The Department of Disaster Management's web-based 'Aware' system allows monitoring of flood, cyclone, lightning, flash flood, landslide and earthquake risks. Such digital platforms make it possible to bring information on different disasters together in one place and improve coordination among the agencies concerned.

But greater use of technology alone will not solve every problem. Limited electricity and internet in remote areas, the cost of maintaining equipment, a shortage of skilled manpower and the accuracy of forecasts are major challenges. Even when a warning reaches people, the technology will not help unless they understand it or have the opportunity to act on it.

Warning and shelter systems must be designed with the needs of women, children, the elderly, persons with disabilities, fishermen and marginalised communities in mind. Experts say Bangladesh needs a combination of technology suited to local realities and effective disaster management. Where each technology works best should be tested experimentally and expanded step by step.