If the Spanish right wins the election, the Catalan issue could flare up again

Spain’s election this month risks pushing the explosive issue of Catalan independence right back up the political agenda. Nearly a decade after a separatist drive in Catalonia plunged Spain into a constitutional crisis in 2017–2018, the topic now lies dormant, barely making the headlines.

But that could change quickly if the conservative People’s Party (PP) and the far-right Vox take power in the vote on November 29, as polls predict. Their staunch brand of unionism could well inflame feelings across the region of eight million people.

Francesc-Marc Álvaro, a candidate for the Senate in the upcoming election for the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), said: “We know that they are certain to cut back our self-governing powers and intervene in Catalan society in a very heavy way. This would amount to throwing gasoline on Catalan society.”

Lawmaker Míriam Nogueras from the pro-independence Junts party said Catalonia had “never been respected by any Spanish regime or government,” and the next would be no exception. She said: “Whatever its political color, the next Spanish government will be exactly the same as the previous one on one fundamental issue: Catalonia.” She added that “the independence movement will regain momentum, and it will do so with renewed strength, because Catalonia’s dependence on Spain makes everyone poorer.”

For Madrid, the stakes are economic as well as political. Catalonia is Spain’s second-biggest autonomous region after Andalusia, representing about 19 percent of the national economy and 16.5 percent of the population.

Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez took office shortly after a failed independence drive in 2017 saw several nationalist politicians flee abroad and nine others jailed.

In contrast to the PP’s uncompromising approach to Catalonia, Sánchez negotiated with pro-independence parties, making concessions in exchange for their parliamentary support. An amnesty benefiting Catalans involved in the secession attempt angered the Spanish right but helped calm the political atmosphere in the region, eliminating a major nationalist grievance.

Meanwhile, the cross-party unity between separatists that was so instrumental in driving the independence movement a decade ago has dissolved. Although 43 percent of Catalans remain in favor of independence, according to the regional government’s statistics institute, the topic has fallen off their list of priorities, behind housing, immigration and crime.

Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president who led the 2017 secession bid, recently admitted that “nine years on, the independence movement is fragmented and weakened.” Speaking to Catalan news outlet El Punt Avui from Waterloo, Belgium, the separatist said: “What I want is to stop being Spanish. I don’t say this as an act of rejection or contempt.” He added that he should be able to “cancel” Spanish nationality like any other subscription.

The big question now is to what degree hostility from the PP and Vox could rebuild the movement. PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, citing Sánchez’s willingness to engage with Catalan nationalists, accused him of leading a government that “has begun a process of separation with and deconstruction of the constitutional system of 1978.”

Vox rose to prominence on the back of its fierce opposition to Catalan separatism. It has called for pro-independence parties to be made illegal and advocates the dismantling of Spain’s decentralized political structure, which it claims is wasteful and encourages regional nationalism.

Vox spokesperson José Antonio Fúster said: “We want to make [separatist parties’] life as difficult as possible, because they’ve been making life impossible for Spaniards in general.” He said: “We are going to work, without a doubt, to make sure that pro-independence parties accept that the unity of Spain cannot be meddled with, is not questioned — otherwise it is clear that they must not form part of the Spanish political landscape.”

For now, however, both the PP and Vox are not taking a directly confrontational approach on Catalonia. In an interview with Barcelona-based newspaper La Vanguardia, Feijóo insisted that the region had nothing to fear from him. He said: “I’m not here to centralize; I’m here to make self-government work and for the Spanish state to have a presence.”

What remains to be seen is what the result of the November 29 election will be, and how tough a line the new government takes on Catalonia. Whether the long-dormant question of independence returns to the centre of Spanish politics will depend largely on that outcome.