Trump's middle path on Iran: Rubio stands by the blockade, Vance wants a settlement
Torn between further military action against Iran and a diplomatic settlement, the United States appears for now to be choosing the path of continuing long-term economic pressure and a blockade.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Washington's economic pressure on Iran is working so effectively that there is no need for a new large-scale military campaign against the country. Statements from President Donald Trump's administration on the conflict with Iran change often, and Rubio's remark is the latest in that pattern.
Rubio made the remark after the Republicans' big defeat in the midterm elections. Trump had already acknowledged that public opposition to the war probably played some part in that defeat.
Speaking in Paris on Tuesday after meeting G7 foreign ministers, Rubio said Washington's economic pressure is so effective that a new large-scale military campaign is unnecessary. He said: 'If we can achieve the same goal through economic pressure, we do not need to carry out a military attack. This is not a stalemate. Economic pressure on Iran will increase further.'
Rubio also urged G7 allies to help protect shipping in and around the tense Strait of Hormuz. He said US forces will remain there. Positive progress appears to be being made toward ending the conflict, he said, but the United States is fully ready to act if the situation changes.
The secretary of state's remarks closely match comments Trump made last Monday, when the president said the chance of more attacks on Iran was 'very low'. On his social media platform Truth Social, Trump wrote that US allies in the Gulf region favour maintaining the 'current situation' — by which he meant the US blockade on Iranian ports.
Vice President JD Vance has been comparatively more critical of the war. In a recent long social media post he blamed the Iran war for the Republican Party's midterm defeat. Citing a source familiar with the matter, Reuters reported that Vance favours a settlement with Iran. Trump, however, believes that is not possible at this moment.
Talks to end the US-Iran conflict have been effectively stalled for months. Iran is targeting various ships, claiming they are violating conditions it set for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States, meanwhile, is increasing sanctions on Iran and maintaining the blockade on its ports. Washington also plans to close Iran's land supply routes.
Last September Iran proposed a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and start talks. Tehran later said that timeframe could be reduced to two days. Tehran's demands on the United States include lifting sanctions Washington imposed after the June memorandum of understanding collapsed, reducing the US military presence in the region, restoring oil sanction waivers and releasing frozen Iranian funds.
According to officials who spoke to US outlet Axios, Trump is torn between two paths — restarting an unpopular war, or stepping up efforts for a settlement with Tehran. For now he has chosen a middle path: not returning to a full-scale military campaign while increasing pressure on Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner support this strategy. But one US official said several US allies in the region, including Pakistan, Iraq and Turkey, are worried that prolonged pressure could also harm their own business interests.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said a US policy of maintaining harsh sanctions and a blockade on Iran for the long term will only prolong an 'unstable situation' and will eventually lead to more military conflict. Negar Mortazavi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Washington-based Center for International Policy, said the Republicans' big election defeat has greatly raised the political cost of escalating the conflict.
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that ended last Monday, 71 percent of Americans favour Congress passing a law to end the Iran war. Support is 93 percent among Democrats and 51 percent among Republicans. Both Trump and Vance have acknowledged that the Iran war was partly responsible for the Republican defeat. Trump said voters were not prepared for petrol prices to rise.
Even as Washington appears to be stepping back from escalation, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said last Tuesday that this war will not end 'by military means or by increasing sanctions' and can only end by 'speaking the language of respect'. Iran's top security official Mohsen Rezaei said on social media on Monday that there are no talks between Tehran and Washington, and that if the United States attacks again Iran will retaliate against US bases located far away. Qatar's foreign ministry said on Tuesday that Doha is working 'tirelessly' in ongoing mediation efforts and has received positive responses from both sides. Rubio said the United States is still 'ready for diplomacy', but called Iran's current demands 'completely unrealistic'.
