ASEAN Summit in Manila Under Shadow of Trump's Asia Trip, With Trade Uncertainty on the Agenda

Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are gathering in Manila, the Philippines, for their flagship annual summit, with a series of multilateral and bilateral meetings running from Sunday until Tuesday.

US President Donald Trump will be on an Asia-Pacific trip at the same time. He is scheduled to meet Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr during a brief stop in Manila on Tuesday.

From Manila, Trump will head to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China, where he will have his fourth face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in just over a year. The White House has confirmed it will also be the first time Trump, Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet for trilateral talks.

The visit is Trump's second to Southeast Asia since his return to the White House, after his attendance at the 2025 ASEAN summit in Malaysia. Since then, his administration announced new tariffs in July on dozens of trade partners, including most of the region's economies.

After the US Supreme Court struck down Trump's steeper 'reciprocal' tariffs in February, the administration imposed duties of between 10 and 12.5 percent. The Office of the US Trade Representative said it was imposing the tariffs on 60 trade partners over their alleged failure to clamp down on forced labour.

The Trump administration is also conducting trade probes over alleged national security and 'excess' manufacturing concerns that could result in yet more tariffs for Southeast Asian trade partners.

Southeast Asia has weathered Trump's trade salvoes relatively unscathed until now, in part because of the diversion of billions of dollars of Chinese trade through the region. US imports from ASEAN rose more than 29 percent to $453.6 billion in 2025, expanding the trade deficit between the sides to $327.4 billion, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative.

Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, said Southeast Asian countries cannot guarantee that their luck will continue. Overall exports are up, she said, but that is primarily driven by shipments of electronics, which are largely exempt from tariffs and strongly tied to the AI buildout; if that falters, ASEAN will feel it.

While ASEAN leaders have provided few details about the summit agenda, trade is likely to be among the main topics. One of the most anticipated tangible outcomes is the signing of the Digital Economy Framework Agreement, a pact aimed at easing cross-border data transfers and electronic payments. Initiated in 2023, the framework has been billed as a step towards building an ASEAN digital economy worth $2 trillion by 2030.

Jayant Menon, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said Southeast Asian leaders will be concerned about 'what comes next' from Trump on trade. The recent tariffs appear to have had a limited impact on the competitiveness of ASEAN exports so far, he said, but that may change with more sectoral tariffs or measures such as export controls. Menon also noted that Trump retains significant autonomous authority over trade policy despite losing control of both houses after the Republicans' defeat in the November 3 midterm elections.

Phar Kim Beng, a professor of ASEAN studies at the International Islamic University of Malaysia, said leaders are likely to reiterate calls for increased trade within the region. Intraregional trade remains at 23 percent whether measured from 1970 or 2025, he said, in contrast to the European Union, which can easily cross 67 percent. He does not expect ASEAN to announce any significant measures to spur trade within the bloc.