World leaders head to Asia for back-to-back summits, with a Trump-Xi-Putin meeting in Shenzhen in focus
The global political centre of gravity will be firmly in Asia this week, as world leaders fly in for back-to-back high-level summits against the backdrop of the tussle for influence between the superpowers China and the US. Trade, technology and regional security will take centre stage in meetings in China, the Philippines and Cambodia.
Beijing will have the home advantage when it welcomes Donald Trump to its southern technology hub of Shenzhen for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) leaders' meeting. It starts two weeks after the US leader lost the midterm elections.
Apec represents more than 60% of global GDP and has primarily promoted free trade and multilateralism. This year's meeting could be defined, however, by the confirmed trilateral meeting between Trump, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin of Russia.
The three-way meeting has been likened to a modern-day Yalta, when in 1945 the US president, Franklin D Roosevelt, Britain's Winston Churchill and the Soviet leader Joseph Stalin met in Crimea to carve up Europe after the second world war. However, analysts say a 'Yalta 2.0' that issues edicts on Ukraine and Taiwan without their involvement is unlikely.
Xiaoyu Pu, an associate professor at the University of Nevada's department of political science, said a three-way meeting 'might be more symbolic than substantive, although symbolism itself matters in great-power diplomacy. Trump appears interested in nuclear arms control and denuclearisation. Xi's priority is likely to maintain a stable relationship with Washington while preserving China's strategic partnership with Russia. Putin, meanwhile, wants to maintain his bargaining leverage over Ukraine.'
Apec begins on Wednesday. Before that, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) meeting in the Philippines starts on Sunday, which Trump will attend. While he is in Manila, US officials will hold a sidelines meeting of the so-called Quad – Australia, India, Japan and the US. In addition, a Francophone summit, which includes the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, is happening concurrently in Cambodia.
Critical global issues at all these summits will include AI supply chains and governance, tariff reductions and the green energy transition. Trump's focus has been on denuclearisation. A key regional focus will be on the South China Sea, where Beijing has built massive military outposts in disputed waters, as well as the gigantic Indonesian forest fire haze blanketing the region.
The humanitarian and security crisis in Myanmar has become a perennial issue, as is the status of Taiwan, which China does not recognise. The self-ruled island is sending the founder of the tech hardware company Acer as its envoy to Apec.
For well over a decade, Washington's engagement in the region has been coloured by concern over the rise of China, with the then president Barack Obama telling Australia's parliament in 2011 that the US was 'a Pacific power, and we are here to stay' – a policy known as the 'pivot to Asia'.
Jayant Menon, an economist at Singapore's Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, said that countries in south-east Asia had been 'laying the groundwork for a future with reduced dependence on the United States' by seeking deals elsewhere, including with each other and the EU. 'Amid persistent uncertainty and an administration determined to levy tariffs by any legal means, south-east Asia's ability to ride out another round of tariffs depends on deeper regional integration and diversification beyond the US market,' he wrote this month in the East Asia Forum.
Beijing's more predictable policies do not necessarily make it any more palatable for its regional neighbours, and the Chinese premier, Li Qiang, could have tough talks when he goes to Manila for the Asean summit, especially on the South China Sea. China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, recently urged Manila to rein in Filipino politicians who he said had repeatedly 'smeared' Beijing, after public outcries in the country over the disputed waters.
Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam have been locked in decades-long territorial standoffs in the busy waterway, which could sit on deposits of oil and gas. Washington has sent military ships on 'freedom of navigation operations', despite Chinese outcries.
A decades-long attempt to sign a South China Sea pact is not expected to happen at this year's Asean summit, as previously hoped. Despite monthly meetings, negotiations will have to continue next year, when Asean's leadership rotates to Singapore.
Diplomats at the Asean summit will also be focusing on Myanmar, which is seeking reintegration. The timing of the summits coincides with a judgment in the international court of justice on Thursday that could find Myanmar responsible for genocide. The coup leader, Min Aung Hlaing, remains barred from Asean but is allowed to send a representative. Asia's week of diplomacy will be followed next month by the G20 summit in Miami, Florida.
