Salazar brings Republican concerns over the Latino vote to the fore, warning Trump

At Maximo Gomez Park in Miami's Little Havana area, also known as Domino Park, Cuban Americans play dominoes to forget the stresses of the day. Last week, an ordinary day suddenly took a turn when a player was arrested by Miami police in the middle of a game. The incident occurred after a dispute with a city employee.

After this arrest, fear of deportation from the country spread among the other players. At the same time, a broader political debate began — is President Trump responsible for the rising cost of living, or is former President Biden responsible? Republican voter Alejandro Torres said it is Biden's doing. On the other hand, Ricardo Caracedo, who plans to vote Democrat in the midterm elections, said it is Trump's doing.

The same division can be seen across Florida's 27th congressional district. More than 70 percent of the residents of this Miami-Dade County seat are Latino. This picture is a warning signal for Republicans, because in their 2024 victory they relied heavily on this important voter group.

That year, Trump, nationally, brought the Democrats' margin among Latino voters down to just three points, where four years earlier the margin was 25 points — this is what has been learned according to Pew Research Center data. Cuban Americans, the largest Latino group in the district, were reliable supporters of Trump. But many of their friends and relatives have been affected by the administration's deportation drive. If cracks appear among them, it could be a sign of broader problems in Latino support for Republican candidates.

Cuban-American Republican Representative Maria Elvira Salazar is serving a third term, and she has been issuing warnings. Last month, Salazar stood in front of the White House and recorded a television advertisement in which she warned President Trump that he has gone too far on the immigration question.

In the advertisement she said the Hispanic voters who helped Trump reach the White House in 2024 now feel cheated. After the advertisement, Trump reacted back against Salazar. On his Truth Social account he shared another user's post in which Salazar was described as a backstabber.

Salazar said she did not see these comments as an attack, and that she later spoke with the President. According to her, she told the President that what she is saying is what the people of her area are feeling. This is democracy, where the leader is told what is happening in his area — that is exactly what she has done.

Salazar's assessment of the impact of Trump's policies may be correct. In a recent Equis Research survey of registered voters who identify as Hispanic or Latino, it was found that if congressional elections were held today, they would put a Democratic candidate ahead of a Republican candidate by 57 to 31.

At a campaign event of Salazar's last Thursday, friends Mirla Loredo and Ramona Tunon were divided on this question — whether they were on the side of Salazar's position or on Trump's side. Salazar has also taken a stance against harsh immigration policies before. For several years she has been proposing a law called the Dignity Act, under which deportation could be stopped of immigrants considered pillars of the community, such as hospitality, construction and farm workers.

However, Democratic voter Caracedo at Domino Park said he will vote entirely for the Democrats. In his view, Salazar's recent position against Trump's harsh deportations has come too late and is not enough. In his mother tongue, Spanish, he said he will not vote for Salazar for taking the Hispanics' side at the last moment, because the whole time she supported Trump and the funding Trump wanted for ICE. He also said Trump reminds him of the communist leaders he left behind in Cuba.

In the past, Republican messaging on socialism had a strong impact in this district. But now the force of that message has weakened, because concern over the rising cost of living and deportations has overtaken it. In the opinion of Eduardo Gamarra, a professor of politics at Florida International University, the downturn in the local economy has overshadowed all issues, and it is probably the number one matter affecting the entire voter group.

In his view, the second main issue is deportation, which has harmed some businesses in Miami because those establishments have lost workers and customers. Salazar's Democratic rival, Elliot Rodriguez, is also a former broadcast journalist of Cuban descent. He wants to overhaul the immigration judge system and restore federal food assistance after the cuts. However, he acknowledges that his party has much ground to make up after drifting considerably away from Florida.

Although polls in the district in recent weeks have tilted toward the Democrats, the Republicans are still ahead. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has rated this contest as leaning toward the Republicans. In Gamarra's view, for the Republicans to win they will have to depend on their political machinery. In his words, they will not win on the issues; they will win on voter turnout — the enthusiasm is on the Democrats' side, but the Republicans hold the machinery.