Congress braces for post-election musical chairs as leadership battles loom

In the United States Congress, a major game of leadership change is about to begin after the election. On Capitol Hill it is being compared to a game of musical chairs — when the music stops, those who fail to find a seat will be out.

Over the next few weeks, leadership elections are due in four camps in Congress. House Republicans and Democrats will choose their top leaders, and members of both parties in the Senate will do the same. When the new Congress convenes on 3 January, the full House will elect a speaker, while in the Senate the majority party will decide its own leader.

A scramble for leadership positions is expected in the days following the election, depending on which party captures the majority in each chamber for the new Congress.

If Republicans maintain control of the House, the current leadership team — Speaker Mike Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Majority Whip Tom Emmer — will likely stay in place. But if the party loses the House, recriminations and a fierce fight over seats will begin.

The reason is that in the minority, a party has only two top leadership positions instead of three. Questions will then arise — will Johnson slide to minority leader? Does he want that slot? Does President Donald Trump want him in that position, or someone else?

Analysts say who becomes the top House Republican in the new Congress will ultimately depend on whom Trump wants. Whether Scalise becomes minority leader or slides to minority whip, and where Emmer fits in, are also questions in circulation.

Meanwhile, there are clear indications that Jim Jordan wants to become the top Republican in the House. He has campaigned for Republican candidates and members for months and has raised money for the party for years. He remains a close ally of Trump and also maintains strong ties to the conservative House Freedom Caucus.

Notably, after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was removed in the autumn of 2023, Scalise, Emmer and Jordan all lost bids to become speaker. Jordan lost multiple floor votes before the Republican Conference dropped him as the nominee. Since then, he has worked to build bridges with Republicans who opposed him.

For the Democrats, the picture is comparatively easier. If the party wins the House, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is very likely to be chosen as the first Black speaker in American history. Whip Katherine Clark would become majority leader, and Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar would likely become majority whip.

But if Democrats fail to win the House, it is unclear whether their top leaders would remain in place. Expectations within the party are so high that, even in a political environment toxic for Republicans, a failure to flip the House could prompt rank-and-file members to demand new leaders.

In the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune does not wield the same political currency with Trump as Johnson does. The president has begun making demands about the Senate schedule and what he wants passed, many of which Thune has resisted. If Republicans lose control of the Senate, this tension could grow.

The obvious name for a possible Senate Republican leadership void is Majority Whip John Barrasso, who is seen as closer to the president. Also being watched are Senators Katie Britt, John Kennedy and Rick Scott — Scott ran for majority leader two years ago and lost to Thune.

On the Democratic side, despite criticism of Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's age and style of politics, the argument of success works strongly in his favour. If Democrats flip the Senate, he will likely become majority leader. The one known is the pending candidacy of Senator Brian Schatz to succeed retiring Minority Whip Dick Durbin; if Schumer were to depart, Schatz could also enter the race to become the top Senate Democrat.

Leadership elections usually take place in mid to late November. If it takes a while to sort out which party controls which chamber, those elections could be delayed. But the music is already playing — and everyone is jockeying for a seat.