Early Voting Surges in US Midterms Past 23 Million, with Registered Democrats Casting More Ballots So Far

With just 11 days until the US midterm elections, the number of early votes cast has passed 23 million. As of Friday afternoon, more than 23 million Americans had already voted in person or by mail — a sign of unusual voter enthusiasm in this year's elections.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reclaim the majority in each chamber of Congress. Against that target, the early-voting picture is encouraging for them, because among the ballots returned so far, registered Democratic voters account for the larger share.

The numbers in the key battleground states are striking. Michigan and Ohio have each passed 900,000 ballots cast, Georgia has recorded almost 1.5 million early votes, North Carolina more than 1.2 million, Florida almost 2.2 million and Texas more than 2.8 million, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab, as of 23 October.

Early voting is soaring compared with the last midterms in many of those states. In Georgia, early votes already represent more than 40 percent of the total turnout from the 2022 midterms. Texas is at 35 percent and North Carolina 33 percent, while Florida is at 27 percent. Michigan and Ohio are recording similarly high paces.

By party registration, Democrats are clearly ahead. Registered Democrats account for 45 percent of early ballots cast, compared with 30 percent from Republicans. It should be noted, however, that this tracks returned ballots by registration — not which candidate those voters actually chose.

The party gap is particularly pronounced in North Carolina, Kansas and Iowa — all states that traditionally favour Republicans. Trailing in early voting on traditionally friendly ground has become a source of unease in the Republican camp.

Midterms typically favour the party out of power. This year that pattern is reinforced by widespread public frustration over Donald Trump's handling of the economy, the cost-of-living crisis and his deeply unpopular war on Iran, reflected in the president's record-low approval ratings.

As a result, Republicans are fighting hard to defend seats in places where Trump won by wide margins just two years ago. Strategists worry about a “red undertow” — Republican voters staying home out of frustration over high gas prices, the conflict in Iran and sweeping tariffs.

Democrats, by contrast, have been energised. Trump's growing unpopularity and voter frustration over affordability have, they believe, given them opportunities to flip seats they have not won in decades.

Demand for mail-in voting is also higher than last time. More than 57 million mail-in ballots have been requested or sent nationally — greater than the 52 million requested in 2022 — according to NBC News, using data from TargetSmart. The University of Florida's Election Lab puts mail-in ballots requested at more than 59 million.

Despite executive orders from the Trump administration attempting to restrict mail-in voting, which the Supreme Court struck down in September, voters continue to use the process at pre-pandemic rates. Whatever the political argument over mail voting, habits on the ground have not changed.

Early-voting figures are not the final result, however. Republicans have historically preferred to vote on election day, so turnout on the day itself can still change many calculations. For now, the only certainties are that turnout is unusually high — and that, so far, Democrats are leading the wave.