One week before the midterms, inflation pressures Trump as Republicans fear losing Congress over voters' anger at prices

Just one week before the midterm elections, President Donald Trump is struggling to deliver on his promise to bring down costs. The elections will serve as a referendum on his second term, and the same frustration that powered his comeback two years ago could now cost Republicans control of Congress, according to the analysis.

Trump would prefer voters not to worry about inflation, but it is hard for them to ignore. Filling up a basic Ford F-150 truck now costs about $100, up $30 from a year ago. Mortgage rates have jumped to levels that have depressed home sales. And for the past 12 months, consumer prices have risen faster than paychecks, making the average family poorer.

While campaigning, Trump insists: 'Our nation is doing better now than ever before,' vowing that interest rates and oil prices will plunge once the war with Iran — which he started — comes to an end. He calls 'affordability' nothing but 'a con job by the Democrats', adding that it does not mean anything to anybody.

But voters say they are struggling to afford basics like fuel and groceries and blame Trump for higher costs, pointing to his aggressive tariff policies and the ongoing, unpopular war with Iran. Record-high diesel prices in particular have driven up shipping and farming costs, creating trouble for Republicans in typically conservative states such as Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas, where Democrats appear uniquely competitive in races that will shape Trump's final two years in office.

AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler said: 'The costs of things are absolutely the first thing people talk about, but also it's their pay not keeping up with the cost. It's a double whammy.' Prices at the pump have become a preeminent issue. Stephen Moore, who has previously advised the president on the economy, said: 'People hate paying more money for gas, and the prices have gone up a lot. With the Iran situation, that's really had a big effect on the economy, and Republicans may pay a high price for that.'

In Easley, South Carolina, Misty Reeder, 48, considers herself 'in the middle' politically but picked all Democrats on her ballot. Reeder, who receives disability payments, said: 'I've noticed that things have been getting a lot harder. You hear about it everywhere you go.' In the six years she and her husband have been renting their home, the rent has increased by hundreds of dollars. 'Something's gotta give,' she said. 'It's like a dam — the pressure's too much, and it's going to break.'

Sandra Capell, 69, voted Republican in the same city but wants to see change on the economy. She said: 'I think everybody is kind of suffering when it comes to groceries, gas, everything really. I'm looking at the Republican Party to jump on the wagon, get in the saddle and let's bring it back.' In Allentown, Pennsylvania, Beti Rosales, 47, said higher prices have taken a toll on her family's Mexican restaurant — limes and avocados cost more, and so does the plumber. Two years ago she gave Trump and Republicans a chance hoping for relief from inflation; now she says: 'The reality now is that it actually didn't get better. It actually got worse. The prices of everything have increased.' She is considering voting Democratic.

While running in 2024, Trump hammered President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for high inflation, which climbed as high as 9.1% in June 2022, and vowed: 'With your vote in this election, I will end inflation.' In less than two years he has slapped double-digit tariffs on many trading partners, including the European Union, India, Japan, Canada and Mexico, sparked trade wars with allies, taken government stakes in several dozen private companies and signed broad income tax cuts into law. Yet inflation has persisted — it was 3% when Trump took office and reached 3.7% last month, even as he claims it is under 2% and 'under control'.

Democrats have seized on the discontent. At a recent rally in Atlanta, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat running for reelection, said: 'Now remember, they promised to lower prices on Day One. Instead, under the failed President Donald J. Trump, it costs more than ever in American history to fill up your truck, stock your fridge, visit the doctor or power your home.' In New York, Democrat Cait Conley, running against Republican Representative Mike Lawler, reminded voters in a new ad of Lawler's old advice to fill up the tank and go grocery shopping before deciding, and asked them to say whether the system is working for them.

Republicans, meanwhile, have tried to cast Democrats as extreme. Moore said he wished Republicans would spend more time talking about the economy's strengths, including rising median incomes and a record-setting stock market, while acknowledging those numbers might not resonate. 'What matters is how people feel, and clearly people are feeling stressed out financially,' he said. Not all supporters are dissatisfied — Renee Blood, 57, an executive assistant in Round Rock, Texas, feels the economy has 'improved quite well', and while Trump's golden age might not have arrived, 'we are still working on it'.