Exit polls show Netanyahu coalition short of majority in Israel election, government formation deadlocked

Exit polls published after voting ended in Israel's 26th Knesset election show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition falling short of a majority. According to the polls, his bloc is projected to win about 50 of the 120 Knesset seats, while forming a government requires the support of at least 61 lawmakers.

In Tuesday's election, the bloc led by Netanyahu's main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to win 52 seats. The Arab bloc is projected third with 18 seats. No bloc has reached the number needed to form a government on its own.

Al Jazeera reported that Netanyahu's coalition won 64 seats in the last election and has now dropped to 50. His Likud party has also declined on its own, from 32 seats last time to a projected 25, although Likud is still expected to be the single largest party.

Dov Waxman, a professor of political science at the University of California, told Al Jazeera that if the exit poll figures are correct, it will be nearly impossible for Netanyahu to remain prime minister. In his view, the fall of the coalition from 64 seats in 2022 to 50 is what makes it so difficult for Netanyahu to lead the next government, even with Likud as the largest single party.

Reacting to the exit polls, Gadi Eisenkot said that if the results are correct, they clearly show the public has rejected Netanyahu's government. Yet forming a government will not be easy for his bloc either, because before the election he had said he would not form a government in coalition with Arab parties.

Netanyahu's first option could be to rebuild his current coalition of right-wing and religious parties. That bloc includes the Shas party, United Torah Judaism, Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party. Even with their support, however, crossing the 61-seat threshold could prove difficult, according to the reports.

If Ofer Winter's People of Israel party wins enough votes to enter parliament, Netanyahu could have a chance to bring it into his coalition. If the party falls short, his path to a majority becomes harder still. Under Israel's system, when no party wins a majority alone, governments are formed through agreements with other parties, so even a few seats held by small parties can decide the final equation.

Another discussed option is a national unity government through an agreement with opposition leader Eisenkot's Yashar party. Anadolu Agency reported that under such an arrangement Likud and Yashar could sit in the same government, and even the idea of the two leaders sharing the premiership during the term has been discussed. Many opposition leaders are unwilling to join a Netanyahu-led government, however, so whether such a deal can happen remains unclear.

Before the election, Yashar leader Matan Kahana claimed his party was in contact with several Likud lawmakers and that, in his words, some Likud members speak more with Eisenkot than with Netanyahu. He did not name anyone. Kahana also said his party has no plan to join a Netanyahu-led government, and instead wants first to remove Netanyahu from power and build a majority.

The position of the Arab-led parties has also become important in the government-formation equation, with exit polls projecting them a combined 17 to 18 seats. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot had objected before the election to depending on Arab parties to form a government. Anadolu reported that some in the opposition could consider forming a minority government with Arab parties' parliamentary support without including them in the cabinet.

Political analyst Ihab Jablin told Al Jazeera the exit polls show Netanyahu's coalition has lost its majority, but that government formation has also become difficult for the opposition. If the opposition cannot agree a government through talks, Netanyahu will remain prime minister of an interim government until a new one is formed. Another expert said the situation could lead to yet another election in Israel within months.

Exit polls are not the final result. Reuters reported that after the vote count and seat allocation are complete, President Isaac Herzog can consult the political parties and task the lawmaker with the best chance of forming a government. That nominee will have up to 42 days. If no side succeeds, a new election could follow, and until a new government takes office the current cabinet would serve in a caretaker capacity.