In China the elderly now outnumber children, with the old-age dependency ratio reaching 23 percent

In China, the ratio of elderly people dependent on the working-age population has overtaken the ratio for children for the first time. According to official statistics published last week, the old-age dependency ratio rose to 23 percent in 2025, while the ratio for children was 22 percent.

The latest figures from the country's National Bureau of Statistics say the number of people aged 65 or over in China exceeds 223 million, about 16 percent of the total population. The number of children aged 14 or under, by contrast, is about 213 million. In absolute numbers, too, the elderly have therefore overtaken children.

According to analysts, three factors together — a shrinking working-age population, rising spending on pensions and healthcare, and financial pressure on families — are creating a long-term challenge for the world's second-largest economy. The demographic shift has also raised questions about the country's ability to sustain economic growth.

Stuart Gietel-Basten, a professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said the change carries symbolic significance. In his view, it could mean a large share of government spending will move towards pensions and healthcare instead of families and educational institutions.

Mu Zheng, a sociology lecturer at the National University of Singapore, believes the trend could become an obstacle to China's ambitious economic goals. In his view, it could limit growth and also reduce people's purchasing power.

Mu Zheng also said the one-child policy played an important role in the shrinking of the population. Because of that policy, the number of young people able to take responsibility for elderly relatives in the family has fallen. At the same time, he noted, changing gender roles in decisions about having children, rising living costs and higher education rates are also having an effect.

The one-child policy was in force in China from 1980 until the end of 2015, with the aim of controlling rapid population growth. According to a government estimate, the policy prevented the birth of about 400 million children, although the accuracy of that figure is debated. Rapid urbanisation has also been cited as a cause of population decline and rising ageing.

To deal with this demographic situation, China has for several years been encouraging the younger generation to marry and couples to have more children. However, with the birth rate having fallen to a historic low, those efforts have not achieved much success, the report noted.

According to analysts, this ageing trend could affect household spending, the pension system and government investment in healthcare. A fall in the number of working-age people could also create pressure on production and the labour market, while the government may have to spend more to ensure care and financial security for the elderly.