Netanyahu Loses Majority in Israel Election as Palestinian Parties Surge and Coalition Talks Loom

As Israel's election count proceeded on Wednesday, it became clear that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had lost his governing majority, and his political fate now depends on whether opposition Jewish parties are prepared to forge a common front with Palestinian parties, whose support surged in Tuesday's election.

With 86% of the votes tallied, both Jewish blocs looked certain to fall short of the 61 Knesset seats needed for a majority government. The remaining votes, about 14% of the total electorate, are mostly deployed soldiers and other absentee ballots yet to be fully counted.

The leader of the Jewish opposition bloc, retired general Gadi Eisenkot, appeared to rule out such a broad coalition in a premature declaration of victory overnight for what he called a 'Zionist majority'. As the count proceeded, initial exit poll projections of a narrow lead for Eisenkot's bloc looked increasingly in doubt as the prime minister's bloc edged ahead.

That leaves Eisenkot and his allies facing a clear choice: either make a pact with Arab Israeli parties heading for a record result of 16 to 19 seats, or hand Netanyahu a political lifeline in the form of new elections or a unity government.

Donald Trump took credit for Netanyahu's better-than-expected performance, claiming his overt backing in the run-up to the vote had made the difference. 'When the endorsement went out, it helped him a lot,' Trump said, adding that the result appeared to be heading for a stalemate or a Netanyahu win.

Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, a junior partner in Eisenkot's Change bloc, urged Eisenkot to negotiate with the two Palestinian parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, the United Arab List. In a post on X he said there was no future if they did not stop being afraid and put an end to racism, and that anyone trying to erase the votes of Arab citizens was surrendering to Netanyahu.

The Joint List leader, Yousef Jabareen, said its strong performance meant it could not be ignored under any political scenario. He said Netanyahu's government, especially its extremist national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, had made life bitter for every Arab citizen, and that they would be ready to pave the way to oust the government of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.

Counting all the votes could take another few days, with absentee ballots the last to be tallied. Most of those are from deployed soldiers. The army vote usually swings right, but that picture may be complicated by the fact that many older, more moderate reservists are now on active duty.

Once all votes are accounted for, President Isaac Herzog will give one of the party leaders six weeks to form a government; if the first choice fails, the opportunity passes to his rival. On Wednesday Herzog urged all parties to keep an open mind in trying to build a coalition and said everything must be done to avoid another round of elections. Netanyahu would remain in office in a caretaker capacity until a new majority is formed.

Tuesday's election drew a 77.7% turnout, the highest since 1999. Political deadlock has led to repeated votes in Israel before: between 2019 and 2022 the country held five elections.

The election was widely seen as a referendum on the 77-year-old Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, who has governed for 19 of the past 30 years and is entangled in a long-running corruption trial. On the eve of the polls he posted a picture of a nuclear explosion devastating Tel Aviv.