One week out, early vote in Texas and Georgia shows signs of Democratic enthusiasm

With less than a week to go before the US midterm elections, an ABC News analysis of the early vote in Texas and Georgia shows signs of more enthusiasm among Democrats, who are getting slightly higher turnout among voters who do not vote regularly, particularly in Texas.

More than 39 million Americans had voted early as of Wednesday afternoon, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida.

Much of the apparent surge in turnout is among voters who likely would have voted later in the pre-election period or on Election Day, the analysis shows. Less-habitual voters who are voting early, while a much smaller number compared with regular voters, appear more likely to vote for the Democrat.

The analysis carries a caveat. The data from voter records firm L2 on which it is based does not indicate who someone might have voted for, and it says nothing about who might yet turn out on Election Day.

Neither Texas nor Georgia registers voters by party. The analysis therefore uses L2's models for whether a voter is likely to vote Democratic or Republican, using available information such as turnout in primaries to predict which party people are likely to support.

More than 5 million voters had cast early ballots in Texas as of Wednesday, according to the Election Lab, more than 20 percent of the state's registered voters.

There are closely watched races for Senate and governor in Texas. Democrats hope to flip both despite not having won a statewide race since 1994. President Donald Trump rallied there twice on Tuesday, and Republicans say the president's swings through red-leaning states are meant to turn out his base and motivate Republicans who otherwise might have sat out this midterm.

As of Monday, 51 percent of the early vote in Texas was from voters modeled as likely to vote for Democrats, while 45 percent was from voters modeled as likely to vote for Republicans — a 14 percentage point swing for Democrats from 2022, when they were behind Republicans by around 8 percentage points when early voting finished. Donald Trump won Texas by 14 points in 2024.

In Texas, regular voters who voted in four out of the last four federal elections made up 60 percent of the early vote as of Monday. That group made up 47 percent of the total early vote in 2024 and 44 percent in 2022. The analysis notes this does not necessarily mean more habitual voters have shown up, just that fewer less-regular voters have.

Among voters who did not vote in any of the last four federal elections but who had voted early in Texas as of Monday, 64 percent were modeled as likely to vote for a Democrat and 21 percent as likely to vote for a Republican. In the total early vote in 2022, 50 percent of those voters were modeled as likely Democratic voters and 39 percent as likely Republican voters. The analysis says close elections are decided at the margins, polling in Texas has shown the Senate and governor's races to be close, and Republicans will need to mobilise their less enthusiastic supporters in the remaining days of early voting or on Election Day.

More than 2.1 million voters had cast early ballots in Georgia as of Wednesday morning, according to the Election Lab, where the Senate and governor's races are also being closely watched.

In Georgia's Senate race, Republican Representative Mike Collins is trying to unseat incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff. In the governor's race, Democratic former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms faces Republican businessman Rick Jackson, in a contest both parties see as competitive.

According to ABC News' analysis, 54 percent of the early vote in Georgia is from voters modeled as likely to vote for Democrats, while 38 percent is from voters modeled as likely to vote for Republicans.

Habitual voters who voted in four out of the last four federal elections comprised 67 percent of Georgia's early vote as of Monday, while they comprised 55 percent of the total early vote one week out from the 2022 midterms.

Among Georgia voters who did not vote in any of the last four federal elections but had voted early as of Monday, 52 percent were modeled as likely Democrats and 12 percent as likely Republicans. At this point in 2022, 51 percent of those voters were modeled Democratic and 27 percent Republican. Among voters who voted in two out of the last four federal elections, 56 percent were modeled Democratic and 24 percent Republican, compared with 54 percent and 35 percent at this point in 2022.