From Drone Incursions to Alleged Assassination Plots: Fears Grow Over Russia's 'Shadow War' in Europe

From drone incursions to alleged attempts to assassinate European defence bosses, Russia is feared to be pressing a shadow war across Europe. That activity appears to have escalated this year.

European officials have alleged that Russian fighter planes have veered inside Polish, Lithuanian and Estonian airspace, testing reaction times. Suspected Russian drones have been downed over Poland, Finland and the Baltic states.

Moscow has also been accused of bringing trouble to the Black Sea. In two separate operations in October, Ukraine accused Russia of using aerial and surface drones to sink four cargo ships just outside the territorial waters of Bulgaria, a European Union and NATO member, in an apparent warning that Ukraine's grain exports through NATO territorial waters may not be safe for long.

Russia and Belarus have also been accused of trying to destabilise the Baltic states by making their borders appear fluid.

Ieva Cesniece, Latvia's ambassador to Greece, told Al Jazeera that masked and most likely armed individuals on the Belarus side of the border escorted and attempted to push groups of illegal migrants into Latvia. Those individuals expressed threats to Latvian soldiers and border guards. On the same day, in a separate incident, masked individuals crossed into Latvian territory and carried out deliberate sabotage; border infrastructure was damaged and surveillance equipment was removed.

Latvian media have reported that asylum seekers and undocumented migrants who tried to run back from the Latvian border were rounded up by Belarusian authorities and pushed towards Latvia again.

Cesniece drew a direct link between the Russian war in Ukraine and its shadow war in Europe: 'The weaker Russia appears in Ukraine, the more it tests our resilience, trying to weaken NATO and EU resolve and support for Ukraine.'

As European governments warned of an imminent escalation of a Russian shadow war on the continent, experts said the bloc needs to do more to deter Russia as well as defend itself.

Olena Tregub, cofounder and head of Ukraine's Independent Anti-Corruption Commission, said protecting critical infrastructure, strengthening intelligence services and preventing attacks are essential, but deterrence is about more than preventing the next incident: it is about convincing the adversary that continuing these operations will become too costly, and she is not sure Russia currently sees those costs as sufficiently high. As an expert on following money trails, she believes European governments have not done enough to identify the networks behind operations, expose the command structures, disrupt their financing and logistics, and impose consequences.

Meanwhile, Russia's war is going badly on the ground. Two Ukrainian counteroffensives have blunted Moscow's main thrust to capture the eastern region of Donetsk and in effect have deprived it of any territorial gains this year.

Since a failed August operation to blow up cargo planes at Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport, which was later verified by the European Commission as a Russian operation, warnings of further escalation have multiplied.

Czech spy chief Michal Koudelka warned in September that Russia might attempt a military attack on a NATO member in 'months, not years'.

Days later, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova openly declared that European defence industries supplying Ukraine were legitimate targets for Moscow.