Five Days Before US Midterms, Democrats Lead National Polls but Several Senate Races Stay Close

Five days remain before the United States midterm elections. Democrats are ahead in national polls, but several Senate races remain close. As both parties fight for control of Congress, President Donald Trump, former President Barack Obama and Vice President JD Vance were out campaigning on Wednesday in Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina.

Democrats lead Republicans by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent, a gap of 8.2 percentage points, according to RealClearPolling's national polling average.

But the national lead is not reflected in every Senate race. In Texas, where Democrats have not won a Senate election since 1988, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton with 48.5 percent to 46.7 percent, according to the poll aggregator.

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has widened his lead over Republican Mike Rogers to seven percentage points. A Mitchell Research poll conducted for CBS Detroit on October 26-27 found El-Sayed leading Rogers 51 percent to 44 percent, up from a 4.2-point advantage earlier this month. RealClearPolling showed a narrower race, with El-Sayed at 48 percent and Rogers at 46 percent.

Despite that lead, Democrats are continuing to campaign for support among young voters in Michigan. Will Lawrence, a Democratic candidate hoping to win Michigan's 7th Congressional District from the Republicans, said: "We need everybody and young people are a huge part of the coalition and could really be the difference-maker on November 3rd."

Democratic Congressman Maxwell Frost, who travelled from Florida to campaign for El-Sayed, said face-to-face conversations with voters were particularly important. Republicans are also trying to reach young voters, with one supporter saying there is a movement among Gen Z turning more conservative that many people do not realise.

Beyond Michigan, some voters expressed frustration with both parties. One voter in Lexington, Kentucky, said: "Each party wants to be in power and I think they'll say what they think they want their voters to hear." Another voter in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, said she is independent, votes for both sides, and is frustrated and out of hope.

Democratic strategist Joel Rubin described the midterms as a potential "protest election", saying Democratic voters overwhelmingly are voting to put a check on President Trump's power. Republican strategist Suhail Khan said Trump was losing support among a number of his own voters, frustrated by rising fuel prices, rents and mortgage costs.

Democrats are hoping to overturn Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress, but the Senate presents a bigger challenge. They need a net gain of three seats in the House of Representatives and four in the Senate, where Republicans currently hold 53 of the 100 seats and Democrats hold 47, including two independents who caucus with them. Democrats need to reach 51 seats to take control.

Al Jazeera's Scott McLean said even the most optimistic Republicans will say it is going to be pretty tough for the GOP to hold on to the House of Representatives, but the US Senate is a different story. Even if Democrats win North Carolina and Ohio and hold on to their current seats, they would still be two seats short of the 51 needed for a majority. Alaska and Texas could help close that gap, but Republicans are also hoping to win Michigan, where the race remains tight.

Taking control of the House of Representatives alone would still have significant consequences for Trump. If the Democrats flip the House, they can block parts of his legislative agenda and launch investigations into his administration. They would also be able to call administration officials to testify before congressional committees, although the White House could challenge those demands.