With Over 90 Percent of Votes Counted, No Bloc Has a Majority in Israel and Four Paths Out of the Deadlock Are Discussed

With more than 90 percent of votes counted after Tuesday's election, neither bloc in Israel looks set to win a majority. According to the material, neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition nor the bloc of his key challenger Gadi Eisenkot is projected to secure the seats needed to form a government.

To form a government, one of the leading parties would likely have to break campaign promises, the material says. For that reason, new elections are described as the most probable outcome.

Eisenkot has framed himself as the only alternative to Netanyahu and built his campaign on ousting him from power. Last night he took to the stage at his campaign headquarters and called on Netanyahu to announce his retirement from political life today, telling the crowd Israelis are fed up with Netanyahu's culture of lies, division and incitement.

However, one of the main exit polls, which had initially projected a lead for Eisenkot's bloc, was revised and he was overtaken by Netanyahu, according to the material.

One possibility discussed is that Netanyahu could try to persuade Eisenkot's Yashar Party to join his Likud Party in a national unity government by ditching the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties he is currently in coalition with. But last night at Likud headquarters he thanked his loyal partners and called for a strong right-wing government, remarks some have interpreted as meaning he intends to preserve his alliance with them.

A renewed conflict with Iran could also make a unity government more likely, the material says. In the days before the election, Israeli and US media reported Netanyahu was pushing for fresh strikes on the country and had pressed Donald Trump to approve US involvement. Critics would frame such a move as an attempt to save his own political position, it adds.

The Arab parties were described as a major story of election night. They look to have defied expectations and could gain a record 19 seats, helped by unprecedented turnout from Israel's Arab population, who account for about one-fifth of the country and often describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel.

For years, many Arab voters boycotted Israeli elections, saying voting would legitimise a system they say treats them as second-class citizens. But their turnout this time was inspired by a desire to oust the most right-wing governing coalition in Israel's history, according to the material.

The United Arab List, currently projected to win eight seats, has said it would join an opposition government, while the Joint List, projected to win 11 seats, has said it would support one from outside.

The material notes that only one independent Arab party has ever formally been part of a coalition, in 2021, and it did not last long. Eisenkot and every other Jewish party in his bloc bar one have already ruled out entering government with them. The only Jewish leader advocating this scenario right now is the Democrats' Yair Golan, and such a coalition would be very fragile, especially on issues like Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

Another possibility is that Netanyahu could persuade right-wing parties in Eisenkot's bloc to break away and join his coalition. The two most likely candidates named are Naftali Bennett, joint leader of the Beyachad political alliance, and Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party. Both are right-wingers hardline on security and share some political ground with Netanyahu.

But both campaigned explicitly to oust him and to extend military conscription to the ultra-Orthodox, bringing them into direct conflict with the two ultra-Orthodox parties already part of Netanyahu's government. Some have suggested Bennett and Lieberman's parties could replace the ultra-Orthodox parties, but current electoral maths suggests that grouping may not have the seats needed for a majority.

If none of these scenarios can be negotiated, the default outcome would be new elections. Many would see this as a tacit win for Netanyahu, who would remain as caretaker prime minister until the new elections take place.

Some analysts think the high Arab turnout would not be repeated, especially if their record representation in parliament led to no change, and it could also mobilise more right-wing voters in a second poll. Netanyahu may also bet that the estimated 70,000 Israelis who flew home from abroad to vote, and are thought to skew against him, would not do so again. Several right-wing parties that failed to pass the electoral threshold of 3.25 percent may attract fewer votes or may not even run, bringing more votes to Likud and its allies.

The material recalls that between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five separate elections as Netanyahu and his rivals struggled time and again to co-operate.