US economy grows faster than expected, GDP up 3.4% in third quarter

The US economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, as resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment more than offset the impact of higher oil prices stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.

Gross domestic product increased at a 3.4% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP advancing at a 3.2% pace.

Estimates ranged from a 1% growth rate to a 4.2% pace, placing the reported 3.4% figure toward the upper end of that range.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, increased at a 3.8% pace in the July-September quarter, after growing at the same 3.8% rate in the second quarter.

Historically low layoffs and moderate hiring are helping to underpin spending, though wage gains have at times lagged inflation, the report noted.

At the same time, households have been saving less and dipping into their nest eggs to fund spending. With average gasoline prices still above $4 a gallon as the US-Israel war on Iran drags on, economists had anticipated a slowdown in consumer spending.

The strength in growth stands in stark contrast to households' downbeat assessment of the economy, reflected in Donald Trump's record-low approval ratings and a sharp deterioration in consumer sentiment.

The report was published less than a week before Tuesday's midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress.

The economy is expanding at a pace well above what some Federal Reserve officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 2%. The US central bank on Wednesday left its benchmark interest rate in the 3.75%-4% range while acknowledging that inflation remains elevated.

Fed chairman Kevin Warsh told reporters that economic activity is expanding at a strong pace, noting that while uncertainty remains, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient.

Given the increasing dominance of AI-related spending, some economists said the strong GDP growth was probably not a true picture of the economy. Tech firms have borrowed huge sums over the past year for AI spending, in which the payoff is uncertain — a potential downside risk to equipment spending.