Democrats Lead in All Four Key Senate Races in CNN Poll, With Maine and Kansas Neck and Neck

Races that will determine which party controls the US Senate for the next two years are extremely tight, according to a new CNN poll, with Maine and Kansas remaining close while Democrats extended their leads in Texas and Michigan.

Democrats need to flip four Senate seats from red to blue to gain a 51-seat majority and protect it from the vice presidential tiebreaker. The material says Democrats are widely projected to win a majority in the House of Representatives.

In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins is the only Republican incumbent running in a state that went for Kamala Harris in 2024. Her Democratic challenger is Troy Jackson, the former president of the state Senate, who entered the race as a replacement for the previous nominee, Graham Platner.

In the CNN poll, 49 percent of respondents in Maine favoured Jackson, compared with 45 percent for Collins. Jackson is slightly ahead, but at least 12.5 percent of voters say they could still change their minds, and the poll found no clear frontrunner in the race.

Respondents tied Collins to her party less than any other Republican running for Senate in the nation, with 46 percent saying they believe she would choose her constituents over the Republican Party. Three-quarters of respondents from either party said their choice was motivated more by Collins than by Jackson.

Collins was one of seven Republicans to vote in favour of President Donald Trump's second impeachment in 2021, and in 2025 she joined Senator Lisa Murkowski as the only Republicans to vote against Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth's Senate confirmation.

In Michigan, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is leading former Representative Mike Rogers by 49 percent to 42 percent. CNN's previous poll, released in early September, showed El-Sayed at 47 percent compared with Rogers' 44 percent, meaning the former public health director has built on his lead.

El-Sayed has consolidated his party's support in Michigan, with 95 percent of likely Democratic voters saying they will vote for him, up from 90 percent in the September poll. By contrast, 57 percent of Rogers voters said they were voting against El-Sayed rather than out of faith in Rogers, up from 41 percent previously. Rogers' favourability has also fallen, from 58 percent in September to 50 percent in October.

In Texas, State Representative James Talarico has built on a narrow lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, by 49 percent to 43 percent, despite Talarico's extended absence from the campaign trail in early October. According to the poll, 64 percent of likely voters of colour support Talarico, including 22 percent of that cohort who voted for Trump in 2024.

Within their own parties, 24 percent of Republicans hold an unfavourable view of Paxton, while just 2 percent of Democrats view Talarico unfavourably. The material notes that Texas has voted for exactly one new Democratic Senate candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson vacated his seat to become vice president.

In Kansas, incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall is falling behind Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, by 49 percent to 45 percent. Kansas is a state Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024.

Hamilton, a Christian pastor and a relatively unknown candidate, is far outperforming his own party in Kansas: 57 percent of voters view the Democratic Party as unfavourable, while only 38 percent feel the same about Hamilton. Some 59 percent of Hamilton's backers say they are motivated by opposition to Marshall, and roughly 12 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning likely voters say they support Hamilton.

CNN conducted the polling by telephone between October 20 and 27. The samples covered 838 likely voters in Kansas, 783 in Maine, 768 in Michigan and 923 in Texas. CNN put the margins of sampling error at plus or minus 4.5 percent for Kansas and Maine, 4.7 percent in Michigan and 4.2 percent in Texas.