Vance Letter to Iran's Top Security Official May Offer Last Chance to Avert Fresh US-Iran Conflict

US Vice-President JD Vance has written a personal letter to a top Iranian security official, in a sign that Washington has not abandoned diplomacy. Lingering hopes of averting a major new conflagration between Iran and the US soon after Tuesday's midterm elections could rest on Iran's response to the letter, offering to restart diplomacy.

The letter, written after predominantly Qatari mediation, was sent on Sunday to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. It requires Tehran to agree to make commitments on its nuclear programme at the start of a process that would lead to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in return for US sanctions relief.

A reply is imminent, but Iran is reluctant to give upfront and irreversible commitments on its nuclear programme, such as exporting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a third country, if the compensatory US steps, such as lifting sanctions on Iranian oil exports, are reversible.

Some form of third-party guarantee that both sides will adhere to their commitments has been discussed, with China often mentioned as the only country of sufficient status to underwrite it.

The return of Vance, a sceptic about the war, to the negotiations is significant. One Democrat senator briefed on the targets the US military had identified in Iran described the plan for a renewed attack as insane and likely to lead to the destruction of the commitment to the rule of law.

In a sign of Iran's reluctance to meet US demands about sequencing, its chief negotiator, Mohammad Ghalibaf, wrote on X that Iran's conditions have been repeatedly and clearly stated to the mediators, that the carrot-and-stick approach has no effect on Iran, and that progress can only be achieved once Iran's seven conditions have been agreed upon.

Those conditions include the lifting of sanctions, ending asset freezes and an end to the war on all fronts, a phrase that requires an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.

The US wants front-loaded, specific commitments about the removal of Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Tehran is reluctant to give up its bargaining leverage, and also resists the return of UN nuclear inspectors for fear they might provide the US with intelligence on the whereabouts and state of the stockpile. It has proposed blending the stockpile down inside Iran so it is no longer usable to make a nuclear weapon.

The Vance letter was sent to Rezaei rather than Ghalibaf or the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, because Washington judged that decision-making power rests with those closest to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. In practice, Iran tries to reach decisions through consensus at the highest level of government in a six-strong committee.

Ghalibaf and Rezaei met the supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, last week to discuss the risk of a new war. Khamenei has said he would like an end to the current state of no war, no peace. Iran has well-laid plans ready to strike back against US interests in the region by hitting desalination plants, internet cables and electricity grids across the Gulf.