From president to rebel leader again: Joseph Kabila heads a new alliance in DR Congo

Former Democratic Republic of Congo president Joseph Kabila has re-emerged as a rebel leader. Kabila, 55, was named leader of a new rebel movement, the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN), earlier this month.

The announcement confirmed what many Congolese had long believed — that Kabila was working with the M23 rebels. Last year the M23 seized much of eastern DR Congo, including the region's main cities of Goma and Bukavu.

Kabila's career reflects the country's shifting alliances. He was a commander in the rebel alliance that brought his father to power in 1997. After his father Laurent was mysteriously assassinated in 2001, he became president and remained in power for 18 years.

After stepping down, he formed a coalition government with the very man he handed power to, Félix Tshisekedi. Now Kabila has sworn to topple Tshisekedi, while one of the rebel groups he fought against as president is part of his new alliance.

Kabila now faces a death sentence after being convicted in absentia of treason, as well as US sanctions over his alleged support for the M23. Policy analyst Henry-Pacifique Mayala told the BBC that Kabila had been left with few options for regaining political influence.

Mayala said: 'He actually was left with no other choice.' He suggested the M23's military strength could give Kabila greater leverage in any future negotiations with the Congolese government, and that Kabila would not have taken such a leap without considerable assurances.

It is far from certain, however, that the alliance can achieve its stated goal of ousting President Tshisekedi. The M23's territorial gains are concentrated in the eastern provinces, some 1,500km (1,000 miles) from the capital, Kinshasa. Kabila's political networks could give the rebellion a broader reach, but it is not clear that it has the capacity to extend its military campaign across the country.

Earlier this week Kabila likened Tshisekedi to former ruler Mobutu Sese Seko. He told a research group: 'You have a tyrant who wants to impose and dictate what he thinks is right and not necessarily follow the constitution, which is the supreme law of the land.' He also accused the government of using the death penalty to intimidate civilians, politicians and members of the military.

Kabila framed his confrontation as a fight against authoritarianism, invoking Section 64 of the constitution, which calls on citizens to resist anyone who seizes or exercises power in violation of constitutional provisions. Tshisekedi is rumoured to be planning to change the constitution to seek a third term. Yet the C64 opposition coalition, named after that same section, this week refused to back Kabila's rebellion, saying Congo's security crises cannot be resolved by military means alone and announcing plans to seek direct talks with both Tshisekedi and Kabila.

Richard Moncrieff, a Great Lakes analyst with the International Crisis Group, said President Tshisekedi retained substantial advantages: 'Tshisekedi has strong American backing. He has a lot of money. And he generally controls the political system and, as far as we can see, the military system.' In his first public reaction last week, Tshisekedi said of Kabila: 'In my view, it's simply proof that he has never loved this country, and even less its inhabitants.'

Behind their relationship lies the disputed 2018 election. According to leaked results from the Catholic Church, which had observers across the country, the true winner was Martin Fayulu. Corneille Nangaa, the former election chief who announced Tshisekedi as winner and is now one of Kabila's deputies in the FRN, has claimed that Kabila and Tshisekedi reached a political agreement before the final results were announced and that he helped draft the deal. Tshisekedi has maintained that he won the election legitimately.

The power-sharing arrangement unravelled in December 2020, when Tshisekedi moved to break Kabila's parliamentary dominance and build his own majority. The former allies became rivals and Kabila went into self-imposed exile in South Africa. He returned to DR Congo in 2025 and appeared in rebel-held Goma; in September that year a military court sentenced him to death in absentia on charges including treason and financing violence in eastern Congo.