Squeezed by costs, Texas border voters in the Rio Grande Valley are turning away from both parties

Voters in Texas's Rio Grande Valley are drifting away from both major parties amid economic strain. The Latino-dominated area was long seen as reliably Democratic, but in 2024 some of its voters swung towards President Donald Trump; now some of them are reassessing that choice.

Jesus Robles, who sells mechanical bulls, cast his ballot on the final day of early voting in Alamo, Texas, about 50km (30 miles) from the US-Mexico border. Mainstays of bars and dance halls, once used to train rodeo riders, the bucking machines point to the Rio Grande Valley's history, where Mexican and Texan Ranchero culture have long intertwined.

Robles voted for Trump in 2024, expecting an economic boost that would allow his company to flourish. He said he has lost tonnes of business due to the current president, blaming Trump's tariffs and rising fuel prices. He ships a lot, he said, the price of freight has doubled, and some of his clients have been affected by immigration raids.

Robles said people focus on other countries and on taxes, but at the end of the day he does not feel any of these governments really help ordinary people. Working hard, middle-class people are the ones who get hurt the most, he added. His about-face underscored that no party should take voters in the region for granted.

The Rio Grande Valley has become a battleground within a battleground this election season. Republicans are eyeing Trump's 2024 gains — in which he won 14 of the 18 counties along the US-Mexico border — as evidence of a wider shift.

Republicans have set their sights on flipping at least two Democratic-controlled seats along the border, currently held by Representatives Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar, while holding onto a third held by Republican Monica de la Cruz.

Democrats, riding on Trump's high disapproval ratings among Latinos, who account for about 40 percent of the state's population, are hoping to elect the first member of the party to statewide office in Texas since 1994. Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is running against Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton, while Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa is seeking to unseat Republican incumbent Greg Abbott.

According to Alvaro Corral, an assistant professor of politics at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, the valley, once considered a Democratic workhorse, has found itself increasingly out of step with both political parties. Many voters have drifted away from a Democratic Party once embodied in figures like former President Bill Clinton, Corral explained, which captured a mixture of a traditional working-class economic platform mixed with a little social conservatism and a strong law-and-order focus.

Some voters, in turn, found common ground in the religiously-dominated economic populism of Trump's Republican Party, Corral said, only to find themselves alienated by his administration's aggressive domestic immigration enforcement and a lack of pocketbook relief.

At the Alamo polling site, Natalie, a 40-year-old education worker who declined to give her last name out of professional concern, grimaced when she recounted her 2024 vote. She said she voted for Trump over immigration and the economy. But seeing her students grapple with family separation from Trump's mass deportation drive, and watching the price of diesel for her truck continue to tick up amid the US-Israel war on Iran, made her regret her vote.

Voter Gabriel Ruiz pointed to the high cost of housing as a unifying issue, noting houses can cost between $400,000 and $500,000, a rate previously unheard of in the valley. The 24-year-old said it has become common for voters to think beyond a party: it is always going to be about the economy, job growth, being able to keep jobs here, and people being able to afford housing and healthcare.

Michael Mireles, director of civil engagement at La Union Del Pueblo Entero (LUPE), a local organisation that works to turn out Latino voters, said 2024 was in part a result of Democrats failing to conduct meaningful outreach in the Rio Grande Valley. Only about 40 percent of registered voters cast ballots that year.

Mireles said Democrats in the last cycle were not trying to reach new voters or talk to people typically left out of Valley politics, which he called a huge mistake, because the work that needs to happen is with people who have not been activated politically.

Advocates believe the region is ripe for that kind of engagement. The poverty level in the Rio Grande Valley hovers around 21 percent, the highest rate in the state and twice the national rate, and it has remained nearly unchanged for a decade. As of 2023, about 37 percent of Rio Grande Valley residents did not have health insurance.

The Rio Grande Valley also has the highest concentration of so-called colonias of any part of the state. Colonias began as informal settlements in the 1950s, with the majority of modern residents US citizens. About 1,200 colonias in the area are typically unincorporated neighbourhoods, meaning they do not fall under local jurisdictions and can lack basic infrastructure. LUPE is among the groups that do voter outreach and education in those neighbourhoods.

Speaking from her home in the Erling colonia in Donna, Texas, 36-year-old Angeles Arguelles recounted not taking her sick children to the doctor recently because she could not afford the medication. Her husband works two jobs as a dishwasher, and the family has no insurance. Despite being a US citizen, she said she has never voted, saying it just feels corrupt and she keeps to herself and her family.

At a nearby colonia in the city of Edinburg, 52-year-old restaurant worker Mario Hernandez said his neighbourhood has become increasingly politically engaged. He said he is not a Republican and not a Democrat, and that it depends on who the candidate is. Hernandez said he cast his ballot for all Democrats this year, motivated in part by concerns for his neighbours without health insurance. A lot of elderly people cannot survive on their income, he said, and most people there live paycheck to paycheck.