Weak candidates could cost Republicans the Senate, Democratic strategist Turrentine says

Ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections, veteran Democratic operative Dan Turrentine has offered a fresh reading of the battle for the U.S. Senate. In an interview with Fox News Digital, he said poor campaigns and poor candidate choice by Republicans are opening the door for Democrats to seize control of the chamber.

Turrentine served as chief of staff to Jared Polis when Polis was a member of Congress; Polis is now the governor of Colorado. Turrentine's assessment is that, five days out, several close Senate races are trending Democratic. In his words, 'Five days out, Democrats have a pretty good chance to retake the Senate.'

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 lead in the Senate, and they are also widely projected to lose their slim House majority. That means this election could hand Democrats full control of Congress, Turrentine believes.

First on his list is North Carolina, where incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring. The seat has long been red, but polls show former Gov. Roy Cooper holding a commanding lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley.

Alongside swing states such as Ohio and Michigan, surprisingly close races in typically deep-red states including Texas, Kansas and Missouri have Democrats like Turrentine hopeful of a sweep.

While crediting smart Democratic campaigning, Turrentine pinned Republican shortcomings mainly on what he called poor candidate quality. He cited Ken Paxton in Texas, Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, Roger Marshall in Kansas and Darlene Graham Nordone, who is running to take the seat of her late brother, former Sen. Lindsey Graham.

'If Republicans lose the Senate, it's likely one of those four loses,' said Turrentine. He added that while the president's standing is part of the problem, 'that last mile comes down to weak candidate quality.'

Turrentine co-hosts 'The Huddle' podcast with former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer.

For all his optimism about his own party, Turrentine acknowledged that polls have overstated Democratic support in previous cycles. 'Campaigns are terrified about polling,' he said.

Reaching voters is harder than ever, he noted: people don't have landlines and routinely ignore unknown numbers. He pointed to consecutive 'change elections' — 2016, 2022 and 2024 — where polling struggled to capture late-breaking dynamics.

The open question, he suggested, is whether frustrated Trump voters will stay home, or whether early Democratic surges in Texas simply reflect high-propensity voters banking votes early rather than expanding the electorate. Tuesday's vote will provide the answer.