Democrats Smell a Breakthrough in Texas as Talarico Threatens Three Decades of Republican Dominance

The race for a US Senate seat in Texas may prove crucial in determining which party controls Congress next year — a significant prize in its own right — but for both parties it represents so much more than that. For the Democrats, their losing streak in statewide elections now stretches back more than three decades. In the second most populous state in America, liberals have been in the wilderness for a generation.

But polls suggest their candidate, 37-year-old James Talarico, may be on the verge of breaking through and turning a Texas Senate seat blue for the first time since 1988. That would be a dream scenario for Democrats — and a potential nightmare for Republicans.

'If the Democrats do pull it off, I think it's going to cause a lot of soul searching and a lot of psychological damage to the Republican Party in Texas and nationwide,' said Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas-based Republican campaign strategist. These dramatic stakes help explain how this Senate race has rocketed to become the most expensive in US history, with total spending reaching more than half a billion dollars.

For Talarico, it has been a remarkable rise for a candidate who in 2025 was a relatively unknown state-level Democrat. A former teacher who studied to be a Christian minister before entering politics, he drew a line at the Fiesta Center in Lubbock on Tuesday night that stretched around the building and down the wide parking lot to a busy road. In this dusty western plains town of about 250,000, which voted overwhelmingly for President Donald Trump two years ago, a visit from a major Democratic candidate on the eve of an election was unusual.

When Talarico took the stage before an estimated 3,000 supporters — with another thousand listening on speakers outside — his pitch was a familiar one for many national Democrats this year, albeit with a Texas twist. He railed against a conservative political establishment that he said is insensitive to the economic hardship of average Americans, condemned the corrosive influence of big money in politics, and promised to advance a 'comprehensive anti-corruption agenda' in the Senate. 'Texans are ready for change,' he said. 'We are done with the extremism and the corruption. We're done with the politics of division, and we are ready for something new.'

Aaron Gonzalez, the Democratic Party chair for Hockley County, which borders Lubbock, said: 'It's just so amazing to watch. This time is different.' But in the Lubbock audience, Andrew Robinson, a 26-year-old student from nearby Texas Tech University, tempered his optimism with an entire lifetime spent watching Democrats try, and fail, to get a toehold in the state. 'A Talarico win would mean so much,' he said. 'I haven't been keen on wanting to stay in Texas. And if the government were to change, it could give me a reason.'

For Republicans, a Democratic win in Texas would have a very different meaning. At roughly the same time Talarico was addressing his supporters in the Fiesta Center, Trump — alongside the Republican Party's Senate candidate Ken Paxton — was just a few miles away, in a venue twice the size. 'If you go out and vote, we're going to have a tremendous win in Texas,' the president told the crowd. Trump's visit to reliably-Republican Lubbock suggests the party is concerned about turnout even in the most conservative portions of the state — a worry echoed by other Texas Republicans.

'Understand, we could lose Texas,' Texas Senator Ted Cruz said in his podcast on Friday. 'The Democrats are massively out-turning-out the Republicans.' Don Huffines, who is running for election as the state's chief financial officer, issued an even more dire warning on X: 'Texas is the foundation of the Republican Party in America. When the foundation breaks, it all falls apart. When we lose Texas, we lose the USA.'

For weeks now, party leaders have been warning that a liberal breakthrough in the Lone Star State could have dire consequences. They fear a Talarico win would motivate more local Democrats to run for statewide and federal offices; better quality candidates with more funding could lead to a snowball effect similar to the Democratic inroads seen in other southern states, such as Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia. 'I think that it's pretty clear that Republicans, especially candidates, consultants, operatives, and others who are active in the party, see that this is a real threat,' said Steinhauser. 'The days of waving this off and saying that Texas would never turn blue are over.'

For the Texas Senate race to reach the point where recent polls suggest Talarico has a slim but stable lead has required a unique confluence of events and political dynamics — a 'perfect storm', in the words of Steinhauser: 'Everything that could go well for the Democrats is going well, and everything that could go badly for the Republicans is going badly.' But it is also a whirlwind that, in significant part, has been sown over the past year by Trump himself.

The national environment for Republicans is a harsh one. Voters are frustrated with high consumer costs, including the price of petrol, and largely blame Trump's tariff policies and the Iran war. Political corruption has become an issue of growing concern; Democrats, independents and many Republicans in a recent Cook Political Report poll identified 'greedy billionaires and corporations' and politicians seeking 'personal gain' as the ones to blame.

Texas-specific issues have also contributed to a hostile climate for the party in power. Polling and recent special elections in Texas indicate that Hispanic voters — many of whom switched to Trump to help him win the White House in 2024 — have soured on the administration's immigration enforcement policies. Hispanics make up nearly a third of the state's population, and in more than a week of early voting in Texas they have been casting ballots in historically large numbers.

Data centre construction, which Texas Republicans had touted as a welcome investment in the state, has drawn widespread criticism, particularly in rural areas that have traditionally been solidly conservative. Texas Governor Greg Abbott, in his own tight re-election race, recently announced a one-year moratorium on AI data centre construction in the state — a reflection of how quickly the issue has become a political liability. 'It's bad for Republicans,' one Texas political strategist, who asked to remain anonymous, told the BBC. 'We're asking a whole lot of the electorate at this point for us to continue to be the guys in charge.'

Then there is the baggage that Republican candidate Ken Paxton, 63, brings to the race. He defeated longtime incumbent Senator John Cornyn, 74, in a contentious primary campaign earlier this year, successfully painting Cornyn as too old and too out of touch with Texas conservatives. He received a late boost, just days before his run-off election victory over Cornyn, in the form of a Trump endorsement. 'Ken Paxton has gone through a lot, in many cases, very unfairly, but he is a Fighter, and knows how to WIN,' Trump wrote on Truth Social. 'Our Country needs Fighters, and also Loyalty to the Cause of Greatness.'

The 'a lot' the president referenced includes a 2015 federal indictment on charges of securities fraud — later dropped — and a 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives on corruption, bribery and abuse of power charges. The Texas Senate later acquitted Paxton after Trump intervened to pressure state Republican leaders. All of this has meant that Paxton has more than a few critics — and enemies — in Texas, including within his own party.

Talarico, by contrast, has proven to be an effective candidate. The state legislator defeated a well-known opponent, Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, in the Democratic primary.