Iran could partly reopen Hormuz in two days if conditions are met, as Trump says talks going 'fine'
Ongoing contacts through mediators have provided a potential diplomatic opening between Iran and the United States, even as both sides express readiness for renewed military escalation.
After two days of Qatari-mediated talks, Iranian authorities have signalled that a deal remains possible provided their demands are tangibly implemented. At the same time, they have doubled down on a willingness to expand attacks or even launch preemptive strikes if they deem war inevitable.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera on Saturday, 'We are prepared for all scenarios. We have upgraded our weaponry, addressed our vulnerabilities, and tested new arms. Our forces are at the highest level of readiness.'
His comments came as US President Donald Trump said on Saturday the talks were going 'fine' but added that Iranian authorities were not 'reliable'.
Trump, who ordered attacks alongside Israel against Iran on February 28, has repeatedly raised prospects of once more hitting the country's civilian infrastructure in recent weeks. At a Halloween party at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida, he told reporters about further bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities: 'We still have to take care of, I would say, one or two sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes.'
The mediated talks in Tehran on Friday and then in Qatar on Saturday appear to have produced a new tangible result by shortening the period after which Iran's proposal to partly reopen the Strait of Hormuz can be enforced. Tehran had previously offered seven days, but that has now come down to two, Araghchi said in his interview with Al Jazeera.
Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow with the Center for International Policy, said there are 'indications' of US interest in a negotiated settlement, citing the continuing Qatar-mediated talks and US Vice President JD Vance's recent outreach. 'However, Iran is seeking a series of concessions while the United States insists on progress on Iran's nuclear programme before concessions are made,' she told Al Jazeera. 'Therefore the central difficulty is sequencing and leverage. Each side wants the other to act first.'
According to Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, Araghchi's two-day offer indicates some flexibility over sequencing that could also allow both sides to claim an initial diplomatic achievement without immediately resolving their fundamental disagreements. 'However, the military statements show the limits of this opening,' he wrote on social media.
As the talks were ongoing on Saturday, the office of Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said he had a meeting earlier with top military commanders to demand 'maximum deterrence' through preparedness for an immediate response 'without geographical restriction' to any threat. Targets would include 'tangible and intangible' US and Israeli assets, Khamenei said.
After Khamenei's statement, commanders of the general staff of the armed forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the traditional army separately expressed readiness to launch missile, drone and other attacks in case of an escalation of conflict. State media on Sunday also aired footage of missiles and drones being taken out of massive underground storage sites and deployed.
The authorities also signalled that they expect more potential attacks from the US and Israel, including against Iran's power grid. Gholamreza Jalali, commander of the National Organization for Passive Defense, said during a speech on Sunday that they have identified 14 sectors most dependent on electricity that would need support if the war restarts.
In and around the Strait of Hormuz, vessels continue to be attacked if they refuse to coordinate with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the entity set up by Iranian authorities to enforce control and sovereignty in the critical waterway. At least four tankers were identified as being hit on Friday and Saturday. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, a vessel carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was struck by three Iranian projectiles on Saturday about 40 nautical miles (74km) south of Iran's Lavan Island, deep into the Gulf.
Transit in the strait and surrounding waterways will not return to normal unless the US takes steps towards Iran's conditions, security chief Mohsen Rezaei told state television during an interview on Saturday night. For the sequencing to work, Tehran wants the US to lift its naval blockade that has halted oil exports and the majority of Iran's trade, issue waivers for oil sanctions, unfreeze Iran's assets abroad, stop fighting on all regional fronts including Lebanon, and recognise a bilateral Iran-Oman arrangement for Hormuz.
Rezaei said he has yet to respond to a letter addressed to him by Vance, although he said the missive indicated a 'change in tone' that he described as 'positive'.
The US has also doubled down on the effectiveness of its Operation Economic Outcast involving the blockade, sanctions and pressure on overland trade and aviation. A report by the US Treasury, publicised by Axios, said no new oil had been loaded onto tankers at Iran's terminals since August 25, overseas crude deliveries were down, Iran's year-on-year inflation neared 90 percent in September and the national currency continued to dwindle. The report said Iran's economy was 'crippled' by the combined measures, but did not argue that it was close to collapsing.
