Allies fear Trump could turn on NATO if Republicans lose the midterms, diplomats say

NATO countries are bracing for a worst-case scenario in Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections. Five NATO diplomats, all granted anonymity to speak freely on the sensitive issue, fear that a Republican loss could spur President Donald Trump to dramatically step up his attacks on the alliance.

Their worry is that if he is restrained by Congress on domestic policy, Trump, as commander-in-chief of the U.S. military, may seek to cement his legacy on foreign affairs, where he has a freer hand. Three of the diplomats said that could mean pulling thousands more troops out of Europe.

One senior European defense official said that what usually happens to lame-duck presidents is a mix of venting frustrations and adventurism in foreign policy. Attacking NATO, the official said, seems to be a consistent part of the Trump worldview.

White House Assistant Press Secretary Olivia Wales said President Trump has done more for NATO than anyone else, citing agreements by allies to raise defense spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2035, efforts to bolster the U.S. military presence in Greenland, and efforts to end Russia's war in Ukraine.

Wales added that Trump remains firm that NATO allies should have been there for the United States over the war in Iran. The president, she said, will never settle for the West's managed decline and will continue to unapologetically advance U.S. interests at home and abroad.

Democrats are widely expected to win the House of Representatives and potentially flip the Senate, while Trump's personal approval ratings have fallen to his lowest on record.

The worries underscore growing transatlantic tensions after a U.S. cutoff of Starlink satellite services for Ukraine and a fresh rapprochement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin weeks before the midterms. They come just as Russia steps up its sabotage campaign and so-called hybrid war across Europe.

At the heart of the concerns is an upcoming review of U.S. forces in Europe, expected by December. Three of the diplomats said that if Trump is blocked from legislating domestically, he may seek to significantly increase the scope of that pullback to rally his MAGA base.

Oana Lungescu, a former NATO official and distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, said Trump could also tie continued American presence on the continent to Europe accepting a U.S.-backed peace deal in Ukraine. There is a risk, she said, that all these things are treated as part of a much bigger deal with Putin, creating a very dangerous situation for security in Europe.

The diplomats said Trump could also move to cut U.S. contributions to the alliance's common funding, limit the NATO-backed PURL arms-buying scheme for Ukraine, and deepen ties still further with Russia.

A major electoral defeat for the Republicans could also spell big changes at the Pentagon, with knock-on effects for plans currently being hatched there. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has become a deeply unpopular figure in Congress, especially among Democrats, given his refusal to provide regular briefings about budgets and operations to lawmakers.