New Hampshire Senate race leaves Democrats anxious as Sununu struggles with Trump's shadow

Ahead of Tuesday's midterm election, the race for New Hampshire's open Senate seat has become a source of last-minute anxiety for Democrats. In the contest to replace retiring Democratic senator Jeanne Shaheen, the party cannot afford to lose a seat it already holds.

Chris Pappas, the four-term US representative and Democratic nominee, is stopping himself from getting too excited. 'I take nothing for granted,' he said. 'This is a very purple, competitive state. Elections are never in the bag here.'

Democrats need to gain four seats to reclaim control of the Senate, so they cannot afford to lose one they already hold. But September polling showing Pappas virtually tied with his Republican opponent, former senator John Sununu, rattled party strategists and raised the prospect that New Hampshire could become an unexpected battleground.

The warning signs were striking in a state Donald Trump has lost in each of his three presidential bids. Pappas has since regained a narrow advantage in most polls, and the Cook Political Report moved the race in early October from 'toss-up' to 'lean Democrat'.

Trump's approval rating sits at just 32% in the state, according to a recent University of New Hampshire poll, giving Democrats hope that voter frustration with the administration will ultimately benefit Pappas.

Pappas has focused his closing message heavily on tying Sununu to an unpopular president. He said Sununu had spent most of the last year on 'team Trump' and was now recognising how unpopular the president is as the election approaches. On the final days on the trail he was often joined by party heavyweights such as Arizona senator Mark Kelly and former vice-president Kamala Harris.

Democrats believe the political headwinds facing Republicans have been strengthened by rising gas prices and heating-oil costs linked to the war with Iran. More than a third of New Hampshire households rely on heating oil, and colder temperatures have pushed the issue to the forefront of voters' minds ahead of election day.

Sununu, however, has spent much of the campaign arguing that independence, not loyalty, defines his political record. He has emphasised his criticism of Trump's trade war with Canada, which has affected several industries in the state, and in a recent campaign advertisement he claimed to have 'never met' the president. In 2024 he voiced support for Nikki Haley in an op-ed during the Republican primary and branded Trump a 'loser'.

At the final televised Senate debate this week, Pappas argued that Sununu initially backed the administration's decision to launch strikes on Iran. Sununu countered that the congressman 'exaggerates' his position and noted that he has consistently opposed putting American troops on the ground.

Sununu's Trump problem is also causing consternation for some Republican operatives in the state. One strategist, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it might be a little too much to send Trump an additional senator when the president's numbers are so low, and that it is very difficult to articulate why a Republican should win the seat. The operative added that the war in Iraq broke the back of the Republican party in New Hampshire 20 years ago, that Sununu's support for the initial authorisation contributed to his failed re-election bid in 2008, and that the war in Iran, while asymmetric, is economic and its psychological toll does not help.

New Hampshire's habit of ticket-splitting complicates any effort to view the Senate race solely through a national lens. The state's congressional delegation is all-Democratic, while Republicans control the state legislature and the governor's office. In 2024, voters backed Kamala Harris for president while electing Republican Kelly Ayotte as governor.

The race pits two deeply familiar political brands against each other. Pappas has represented the state's first congressional district since 2019 and previously served on the executive council; his family owns the Puritan Backroom restaurant. If he wins, he will be the first out gay man to serve in the US Senate. Sununu served as a congressman before winning his Senate seat in 2002 and comes from a well-known political dynasty — both his father and younger brother Chris served as governor. If he triumphs, he would be the first Republican senator New Hampshire has sent to Washington since 2010, according to the material.