NYT–Siena poll: Democrats lead in nearly all seven battleground Senate states

Democrats are ahead of Republicans in nearly all of the seven battleground states in this year's U.S. midterm elections, according to the latest opinion poll published by The New York Times and Siena University. Those states will play a decisive role in determining which party controls the Senate, the upper chamber of Congress.

The poll found Democratic candidates leading by large margins in Texas and Kansas — even though no Democrat has been elected senator from Texas since 1988, or from Kansas since 1932.

The fight still looks difficult for the Democrats, because most of the seats they need to win are known as Republican strongholds. The new poll shows Democratic candidates ahead in five states that currently have Republican senators; in a sixth state, the two parties' candidates are roughly level.

Among the states, Democrats lead in Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas. In Alaska the margin is very small, while in Iowa the poll points to a virtual dead heat between the two candidates.

To win a majority in the 100-member Senate, Democrats must hold every seat they currently have and take at least four seats currently held by Republicans.

Michigan holds the only important Senate seat currently in Democratic hands that is up for election this time. The poll shows the party's candidate there leading the Republican rival by a double-digit margin — though the survey was conducted before infighting among Michigan Democrats began over the weekend.