US Votes in Midterm Elections as Battle for Congress Goes Down to the Wire

Voting is under way in the United States midterm elections today. Voters will decide which party controls the House of Representatives and the Senate for the next two years. Republicans are fighting to defend their slim congressional majorities.

President Donald Trump has predicted the GOP will hold the House and Senate for the final two years of his presidency. At a rally in Kansas on Sunday night, he told supporters the party was going to win and that the next two years would be bigger, better and stronger than ever before.

But Republicans are fighting political history, as the party in power in Washington has traditionally lost seats during midterm election years. The GOP also faces a challenging political climate fuelled by persistent inflation, tied in part to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran, and Trump's increasingly negative approval ratings.

Early voting in the midterms has shattered previous records. According to the Associated Press, more than 54 million people have already cast ballots, nearly nine million more than in the 2022 midterm elections.

Public opinion polls indicate Democrats are more energised than Republicans to cast ballots, leaving the GOP facing a potential turnout deficit. But Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters, pointing to Election Day turnout, has said that if Republican voters turn out, his party will win.

Republicans currently control the Senate 53-47, which means Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win back the majority. The GOP needs to hold at least 50 seats to retain control of the chamber, since Republican Vice President JD Vance is the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

Seven Senate races are rated toss-ups in the Fox News Power Rankings. Republicans are playing defence in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. The Kansas Senate race has also recently shifted from Lean Republican to Toss-up.

In Kansas, Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton is challenging GOP Senator Roger Marshall. Hamilton is aiming to become the first Democrat in nearly a century to win a Senate election in Kansas.

The GOP is hanging on to a razor-thin majority in the House, with Democrats needing a net gain of just three seats to reach 218, which would hand them the majority. The Fox News Power Rankings, as well as many leading nonpartisan political handicappers, point to Democrats retaking control of the House, with the Senate majority a toss-up heading into Election Day.

A good night for the Democrats could see them ending up with as many as 240 seats in the 435-seat chamber, according to the Power Rankings. But if Republicans have a good night, they could end up with 212 seats, six short of a majority but enough to make life difficult for the next Democratic House speaker.

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, in an Election Eve social media post, said Democrats can flip the House, take back the Senate, and stop Trump's harmful agenda.

Also up for grabs in this year's elections are governorships in 36 of the 50 states. All but four states are holding legislative elections. Voters will also weigh in on 145 statewide ballot measures in states from coast to coast.

The earliest-closing districts on election night will give some sense of the House's future. Attention is being drawn to Kentucky's 6th District, which covers Lexington; Trump won there by 15 points in the last presidential election, but it looks close this cycle.