Humans vs. computers before the college basketball season: analytics put Kansas in the top six, voters rank them 17th

Before the new United States college basketball season, the preseason rankings have produced sharp disagreements between human voters and computer analytics. The differences were identified by comparing the preseason AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll with the predictive ratings of KenPom and TeamRankings, using the positions from the morning of November 1, before the season began.

At the very top of the board there is relatively little controversy. Both human polls put Florida first and Duke second, while both analytics models reverse that order. Illinois is third in both polls and fourth in both models.

The biggest disagreement concerns the blue-blood Kansas Jayhawks. Kansas is No. 17 in the AP Poll and tied for 18th in the Coaches Poll, but KenPom has the Jayhawks fifth and TeamRankings puts them sixth. Neither human poll has Kansas in the top 15, yet both computers put them in the top six.

Iowa State shows a similar split. The Cyclones, a No. 2 seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, enter this season ranked 18th by the AP and tied for 14th with the coaches, while KenPom has them sixth and TeamRankings 11th. KenPom's optimism is helped by Iowa State's defense, which the model projects to be the second-best unit in the country.

The models are also higher than the voters on Alabama and Houston. Alabama is 20th in the AP Poll and tied for 18th in the Coaches Poll, compared with ninth in KenPom and 16th at TeamRankings, and KenPom projects Alabama to have the nation's fourth-best offense. Houston is third in KenPom and seventh at TeamRankings, ahead of its placements in the AP Poll (10th) and Coaches Poll (eighth), and KenPom gives Houston the top defensive projection in the country.

USC shows the opposite pattern. Both groups of voters awarded the Trojans a preseason Top 25 ranking — 21st by the AP and 22nd by the coaches — while neither model placed them inside the top 35: KenPom has them 37th and TeamRankings 40th.

Tennessee presents the reverse of last year. The Volunteers are eighth in the AP Poll and ninth in the Coaches Poll, while the analytics are considerably less impressed, at 22nd in KenPom and 18th at TeamRankings. Last preseason KenPom had Tennessee ninth compared with 18th in the AP Poll. Tennessee reached the Elite Eight last season as a No. 6 seed before losing to top-seeded Michigan.

Arkansas belongs on the watch list too. The Razorbacks are 12th in the AP Poll and 13th with the coaches, but KenPom places them 19th and TeamRankings has them 25th. Arkansas reached the Sweet 16 in 2026.

BYU lands 25th in both human polls, while both models leave the Cougars outside the Top 25, at 34th in KenPom and 30th at TeamRankings. Kevin Young's team is therefore another example of voters and computers disagreeing.

St. John's offers another familiar disagreement: AP No. 13 and tied for 14th with the coaches, compared with 21st in KenPom and 17th at TeamRankings. Last preseason the AP had the Red Storm fifth.

Last season's experience is why these disagreements are worth tracking. KenPom ranked Vanderbilt 19th in the preseason while the AP voters had them effectively 36th; Vanderbilt finished 27-9, earned a No. 5 seed and won an NCAA Tournament game. But KenPom also had Baylor 17th in the preseason, and the Bears finished 17-17 and missed the tournament.

St. John's was a reminder to be careful about declaring a winner early. The AP's preseason No. 5 team started 4-3, which made KenPom's more cautious ranking of 16th look smart at the time, but the Red Storm finished 30-7, reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 5 seed and pushed Duke in an 80-75 loss. The AP voters put Creighton 23rd while KenPom had them 41st; Creighton finished 16-18 and missed the NCAA Tournament, settling for the College Basketball Crown. These starting points will be revisited as the season develops to see whether the humans or the computers projected the season better.