Five reasons Republicans lost so badly in the midterms, from voters' anger over prices to the Iran war
The Democrats have swept to victory in the US midterm elections, taking control of Congress. All 435 House of Representatives seats were contested in this election; in the Senate, 35 of the 100 seats were up for election because senators serve six-year terms. The remaining 65 seats were not contested this time — 34 of them held by Democrats and 31 by Republicans.
The incumbent president's party generally tends to have a bad night in midterm elections. But the scale of the Republican defeat this time is being viewed as a resounding rejection of Donald Trump's two years in the White House. Five major reasons have been identified behind the loss.
The first reason is voters' anger over the cost of living. From coast to coast, voters across the US have been grappling with the soaring cost of essentials, and that anger was palpable on the ground in key races. One North Carolina voter told the BBC ahead of the elections, 'Gas prices, grocery prices, everything's going up,' adding that she had switched her vote from Republican to Democratic this election.
The numbers show the same pressure. Prices increased by 3.7% in the year to September, driven higher by fuel and energy prices. According to government data, average US retail diesel prices in early October were just shy of the record of $6.52 per gallon seen in September. According to voter poll data, almost eight in 10 voters (79%) said inflation had caused them and their family a severe or moderate hardship in the past year. And more than six in 10 respondents blamed the higher-than-usual prices on the president's policies.
The second reason is the Iran war. The US and Israel launched the war in February. Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation, strangling a key artery for the passage of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and fuel prices shot up. US voters have been paying the price at the petrol pump ever since. The war has proved broadly unpopular with most Americans; for MAGA Republicans it also felt like a broken promise in Trump's America First campaign agenda, in which he pledged there would be no more wars. In a voter poll, 63% said the US made the wrong decision to take military action against Iran, and 74% said the conflict was a crucial or major factor in their vote for Congress. The morning after the election, Trump conceded in an interview on Fox that the war had played a role in the defeat, but insisted he had no choice but to intervene to stop Iran getting a nuclear weapon.
The third reason is the Democrats' strong candidates. They came across as authentic, especially in traditional Republican heartlands, and stuck to a disciplined message about the cost of living and healthcare access. Former teacher James Talarico in Texas and pastor Adam Hamilton in Kansas also talked about their faith in a way that struck a chord with voters.
In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews pulled off a shock upset; as a former paediatrician, her focus on health care affordability resonated in a country where many see the system as broken. In Michigan, former public health official Abdul El-Sayed kept that seat Democratic, making 'money out of politics, money in your pockets' a key slogan. Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff won re-election comfortably in Georgia, a state Trump won twice, making the cost of living and corruption his central message; the victory will only fuel rumours of a 2028 presidential run. Even Trump himself praised the Democrats, telling Fox News they 'did a good job'. Conversely, some Republican candidates like Ken Paxton in Texas were criticised for running poor campaigns that were not focused enough on voters' concerns.
The fourth reason is President Trump himself. The two issues voters were most unhappy with — rocketing prices and the Iran War — were directly linked to the president. His approval ratings had even fallen among Republican voters, which made some states that backed him in 2024 especially vulnerable. He urged voters to imagine he was on the ballot in an effort to galvanise his supporters, but that strategy appears to have backfired.
In the months leading up to the vote, polling indicated that many Americans wanted Trump to focus more on their concerns about rocketing prices. In his final campaign speech on Monday in Washington DC, he talked at length about his controversial renovation project of the Reflecting Pool behind him.
The fifth reason is the shift among voter groups. Two years ago a move towards Republicans among some Hispanic and black voters helped Trump secure a decisive win; that seems to have reversed in these midterms. Democrats claimed all three House races in the overwhelmingly Hispanic congressional districts along the Texas-Mexico border.
According to a New York Times analysis, majority-Hispanic counties moved more than 22 percentage points against Republican Senate candidates compared with the 2024 presidential election. Data reporter Jeff Adelson said the change is more than any other major demographic group in the country. Widespread anger at immigration enforcement has also played a part in the shift; according to the Pew Research Center, a majority (56%) of Americans hold an unfavourable opinion of ICE. Counties with a black majority also moved significantly towards Democratic candidates in Senate races.
The Senate race is on a knife-edge in Mississippi, which has the largest share of black voters of any US state with around 37%. If Scott Colom can win, he would become the first Democrat elected to the Senate in Mississippi since 1982.
