Former Biden official Cait Conley projected to unseat Mike Lawler in New York's 17th District

A former Biden administration aide is projected to defeat Republican Representative Mike Lawler in New York, in one of the most closely watched races of the 2026 election cycle.

Cait Conley, a military veteran who served on the White House National Security Council, is likely to come to Congress next year after beating the two-term incumbent, the Associated Press projected late on Thursday.

Multiple forecasts had suggested the seat would be a likely pickup for Democrats. Fox News Power Rankings rated the district as 'lean Democrat', while the Cook Political Report ranked it a toss-up.

Both parties poured enormous resources into the race for New York's 17th Congressional District in the months before Election Day. It was widely seen as key to both parties' quests to win the House majority.

The district sits just north of New York City. It was won by Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.

Lawler spent much of the race walking a political tightrope between supporting President Donald Trump and positioning himself as an independent voice. The race was also marked by bitter divisions on issues like immigration enforcement and taxes.

Immigration was one of the central issues. Among Lawler's backers were the parents of Sheridan Gorman, a college student from his district who was killed in Chicago while out with friends. Gorman's accused killer is an illegal immigrant who was previously arrested for shoplifting but released without a federal immigration detainer because of Chicago's sanctuary city laws.

Lawler and Gorman's parents pointed to her killing as proof that Democrat-backed sanctuary laws — which are also active in New York — are deadly for Americans. He argued that Conley would do nothing to mitigate the effects of illegal immigration.

Conley, for her part, condemned Gorman's killing and said she is against illegal immigration, but she has not spoken out against sanctuary laws specifically.

Conley served as counterterrorism director on the White House National Security Council from 2021 to 2023, and spent the remainder of former President Joe Biden's term as a senior adviser on election security at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.