Police Forces in England and Wales Should Be Cut from 43 to Nine, Warns Met Chief Rowley

Britain's top police officer, Sir Mark Rowley, will warn that policing is heading for failure unless the number of forces in England and Wales is slashed, with the ability to catch criminals collapsing and public confidence falling. Rowley, the commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, will make the stark comments on Friday.

An official review ordered by the government has concluded that the number of police forces in England should be cut from 39 to as few as nine 'super forces', according to multiple sources. The review was carried out by the former Met police commissioner Bernard Hogan-Howe and is yet to be published.

Sources say that under consideration is the establishment of nine regional forces, plus a single force for Wales, which would sit above more than 150 local policing units that would deliver most neighbourhood crime-fighting activities.

Hogan-Howe's review was completed in September and sent to the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood. Government sources say only that it will be published before Christmas, with a white paper due in the new year.

The axing of most of the 43 forces in England and Wales is seen as essential by the Hogan-Howe review and by some police chiefs, including Rowley. Those chiefs are concerned that the government may delay the most radical change to policing in seven decades.

The delay is understood to be because of Andy Burnham's devolution agenda and desire to 'rewire' the British state and reform local government, including adding more mayors. One police source said there are concerns Burnham may want to align the new police structures with mayors, which could mean 20 or more forces, and that would not be a radical enough change.

Rowley will speak at an event in Manchester on Friday where he and other chiefs, including Greater Manchester's chief constable, Sir Stephen Watson, will press for a reduction in the number of forces. The event's title is 'The cost of standing still is that criminals will win'. Some other chief constables have told the Guardian they are annoyed by the Met-organised event and are sceptical of, or do not support, the big reduction down to nine forces.

According to extracts released before the speech, Rowley will say public confidence has already fallen and that positive outcomes - crimes detected by officers that lead to a charge, caution, out-of-court settlement or no further action - are now less than half what they were 12 years ago. He will say: 'I believe this is a choice between the third greatest revolution in British policing or the inevitable decline and fewer bobbies on the beat.'

Rowley will also say the 43 forces in England and Wales should be cut to eight or 10. He will add: 'Policing has tried to keep up, made do as best it can to patch over our broken model... But the model is creaking. We have 43 overstretched forces trying to do too much with too little.'

Hogan-Howe believes the changes would free up policing to rapidly innovate as new crime types and threats emerge. The 43-force model, overseen by 43 police and crime commissioners, is accused of being too slow and of delivering a postcode lottery of varying service for crime victims. Hogan-Howe came out publicly in favour of a reduction to nine forces 12 years ago.

The bigger forces would handle major crimes, such as murders and serious sexual violence, and public order, as well as expensive but essential back-office functions such as human resources, currently done by each of the 43 forces individually. Above the regional forces would sit a new nationwide force called the National Police Service, which the government wants to be the home of counter-terrorism policing and serious and organised crime. The advert for a commissioner for the national force is expected to be issued early in the new year.

The changes could lead to a vast south-east England force stretching from the London borders to the southern coast of England. A new north-west force would extend from the Mersey to the Pennines, covering Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Lancashire, as well as swallowing up smaller forces such as Cheshire and Cumbria.

There is division among police leaders about the big reduction in forces, with some favouring voluntary mergers, and the new white paper will allow the mass abolition of forces and the creation of new ones to be enforced. One chief constable said: 'Everyone knows 43 forces have to go. But the return on investment could take five or six years.' Another chief constable said that if he were the chief constable of a super force covering such a huge area, he would not know anybody, and worried about it being too big.

Matthew Scott, the Conservative police and crime commissioner for Kent, said: 'They will spend a great deal of time tearing up the fabric of policing for a suboptimal outcome.' The government plans to abolish police and crime commissioners as part of its changes. Another police leader asked where the evidence is that bigger forces are better, citing the fact that in recent years the largest forces, such as the Met, Greater Manchester and West Midlands, had failed so badly they had been put into special measures and their chiefs ousted. Scotland and Northern Ireland are each already covered by a single force.