One Republican wins in Texas despite the 'blue wave' — on a heavily redrawn seat

In the US midterm elections, the Republican redistricting push in Texas largely backfired. But on at least one redrawn seat, that map worked, an analysis says.

Dallas, Texas — Tuesday's midterms were bruising for Republicans in Texas, a longtime right-wing stronghold. The state elected Democrats to statewide office for the first time in 32 years, and the left-wing party held onto four congressional districts that had recently been redesigned to favour Republicans.

Amid that, one Republican bright spot was Jace Yarbrough. In Texas's 32nd congressional district near Dallas, he defeated Dan Barrios. The heavily redrawn seat, previously held by a Democrat, has now gone to the Republicans.

Despite a push under President Donald Trump to shake up the state's map for the right-wing party's benefit, Yarbrough became the only Republican this year to flip a Texas congressional seat.

How did he buck the trend? According to Matthew Wilson, a professor at Southern Methodist University who lives in the 32nd district, there were two reasons. Wilson said Yarbrough effectively pivoted from a primary strategy to a general election strategy.

A constitutional lawyer, Yarbrough had defined his career by litigating progressive policies. But Wilson explained that the cost of living and other economic concerns took an increasingly prominent role in the final months of his bid. Wilson said social and cultural issues were really important in the primaries, but Yarbrough pivoted very quickly, realising those would probably not have the same resonance in the fall campaign, and talked a lot about lowering prices and things of concern to voters in the centre of the electorate.

Wilson added there was another important factor: the district was drawn to be so heavily Republican. The 32nd district had previously been composed of left-leaning Dallas and its immediate suburbs, but in August 2025 the Texas state legislature voted to reconfigure the congressional boundaries, aiming to help Republicans win five extra seats in this year's midterms. That push came at the behest of Trump, who called on Republican-led states across the country to follow suit.

Yarbrough's district was redrawn to include only a portion of Dallas. It now stretches east instead, to encompass several Republican-dominated counties. The demographics also shifted dramatically. In 2024, the district encompassed sizeable Latino, Black and Asian communities, accounting for about 60 percent of the population. The new map lowered the share of those demographics, while including several predominantly white areas.

Still, Wilson pointed out that Yarbrough's victory was far more muted than initially expected. He won 51.5 percent of the vote to Barrios's 48.5 percent. Wilson said even in his case the race was a lot closer than he would have expected, and there was a pretty uniform Democratic swing across congressional districts.

With the dust settling, Republicans will start the next congressional term in January with 24 representatives from Texas, losing one seat to Democrats this midterm cycle. Democrats, who will have commanding control of both chambers of Congress, will have 14 House seats filled by Texans.

The four other Democrat-held districts Texas Republicans hoped to gain via redistricting were swept up in the groundswell of opposition to Trump. In those districts, the party's redrawn maps largely miscalculated Latino voters, a demographic that makes up 40 percent of the state's population and swung towards Trump in 2024, according to political experts.

This year, that demographic tilted back towards Democrats with force, fuelled both by affordability concerns and dismay over Trump's hardline immigration policies, which disproportionately affect Latino communities. Michael Adams, a professor at Texas Southern University, said that when a particular group feels threatened, that mobilises them, and voter turnout normally increases.

One of the most resounding defeats came in the ninth congressional district in Houston, which for years encompassed an area with large Black and Latino populations. The newly redrawn map cut out some Black communities but left a large population of low-propensity Latino voters. Democratic candidate Leticia Gutierrez ended up taking nearly 58 percent of the vote against Republican Alex Mealer. Latinos make up about 60 percent of the ninth district.

In South Texas, Republicans hoped to pick up the 28th, 34th and 35th districts. But in a district representing the suburbs of San Antonio, Democrat Johnny Garcia handily defeated Republican Carlos De La Cruz by more than 10 percentage points. Along the US-Mexico border, incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar carried his district with nearly 66 percent of the vote over Republican Tano Tijerina, while in the 34th district Representative Vicente Gonzalez skated to victory by more than 15 percentage points over Republican Eric Flores.

In another border district, Tejano musician Bobby Pulido, a Democrat, unseated Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz, whose 2022 victory presaged a wider conservative shift among Latinos. Two years later, Trump carried nearly every Latino-dominated border district, seizing on unrest over immigration policies under former President Joe Biden.